000 AGXX40 KNHC 030734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 334 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND LA COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH OFFSHORE ZONES GMZ011 AND GMZ013 AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS COLD SSTS OF THE SHELF WATERS. FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1024 MB ATLC HIGH NEAR 29N73W ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE U.S. GULF COAST STATES ALONG ROUGHLY 30N/31N. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS INCREASED OVER WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO AND TEXAS SHIFTS E WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ESTABLISHED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALES. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOW NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE W CENTRAL GULF WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH 2-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE GULF AND 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI AND STALLING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT AS ATLC RIDGING HOLDS POSITION ALONG 65-70W AND SUPPORTING DYNAMICS LIFT NE TOWARD THE U.S. GREAT LAKES. SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE GFS STILL A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER SE INITIALLY. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE SUFFICIENT GRADIENT FOR NE 20 KT WINDS ACROSS TEXAS AND LA COASTAL WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE ZONES JUST W OF THE FRONT SAT. BROAD AND ELONGATED TROUGHING IS INDICATED BY MODELS TO THE SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE N TO NEAR FRONT ACROSS NW CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT TO THE NW SAT TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING AGAIN...THEN WILL PUSH BACK TO THE E SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRES WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE TEXAS COAST NE ACROSS CENTRAL GULF STATES SUN BEFORE DEEPENING ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY MON. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN EXACT TIMING ON FRONT AND TROUGH LOCATIONS SUN-MON...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST EXTENDING THE FRONT FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN BY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES AND COLOMBIAN LOW PRES IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...STRONGEST NEAR 11.5N75W UP TO 30 KT...WITH SEAS AT 8-10 FT...EXCEPT 10-12 FT NEAR 11.5N75W. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA N OF 20N E OF 81W...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT 3-4 FT IN THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SW HAITI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS STILL OCCURRING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. ATLC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E-SE TODAY THROUGH SAT AND WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS... INCLUDING STRONG E TO SE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS UPCOMING EVENING WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 7 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. NOCTURNAL SPEED MAX OFF COLOMBIA ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO REACH 30 KT WITH 11 FT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL DRIFT SE AND LAY DOWN ALONG THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO FRI BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 17N THROUGH TODAY AS THE TAIL END OF THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES TO ALONG 19N WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THAT AREA. A NEW PULSE OF NW TO N SWELL HAS BEGUN TO ARRIVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY AND WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT PULSE OF N SWELL REACHES THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SUN INTO MON...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO PRIMARILY FRESH S OF 15N WITH NE SWELL BUILDING TO 7-9 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS AMZ127 FROM NEAR 22N57W TO JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL TSTM NEAR IT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT S OF 22N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE TONIGHT AND LAY DOWN ALONG 20N THEN TO ALONG THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO FRI EVENING-NIGHT. THE HIGH CURRENTLY NEAR 29N73W WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E-SE THU THROUGH SAT WHEN IT WILL REACH 65W...SHIFTING E OF 65W BY EARLY SUN. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PRESENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 22N... WITH NW TO N SWELL DOMINATING THE SEA STATE...SEAS 3-6 FT ACROSS THE NW HALF AND 5-8 FT SE HALF. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY THROUGH TONIGHT...BEING OVERTAKEN BY A NEW PULSE OF N TO NE SWELL CURRENTLY BEING GENERATED ACROSS N CENTRAL ATLC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER FROM THE SE GA/NE FL COASTAL WATERS LATE SAT...REACHING FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W SUN MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT THERE BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES IT BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH MON AS ATLC RIDGING REBUILDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.