000 AGXX40 KNHC 021908 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 308 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VSBYS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND LA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING APPEAR TO HAVE FINALLY BURNED OFF...HOWEVER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING ACROSS COLD SSTS OF THE SHELF WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING...AT THE LEAST. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1024 MB ATLC HIGH NEAR 30N75W ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE U.S. GULF COAST STATES ALONG ROUGHLY 30N. MODERATE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE AND 4-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS TONIGHT INTO THU AS LOW PRES DEEPENS AND SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED LLVL TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALES. S TO SE WINDS 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS 5-8 FT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GLOBAL WAVE MODELS PEAK AT 7 FT NW PORTIONS. POTENTIAL FOR EVENING WIND MAX OFF N YUCATAN COAST TO BRIEFLY REACH 25-30 KT AND 8 FT THU. NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI AND STALLING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER LATE FRI NIGHT-EARLY SAT AS ATLC RIDGING HOLDS POSITION ALONG 65-70W AND SUPPORTING DYNAMICS LIFT NE INTO GREAT LAKES. SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GLOBAL MODELS WITH GFS A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER SE INITIALLY. HIGH BEHIND FRONT TO INDUCE SUFFICIENT GRADIENT FOR NE WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS TEXAS AND LA COASTAL WATERS SAT. BROAD AND ELONGATED TROFFING IS INDICATED BY MODELS TO SE OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE N TO NEAR FRONT ACROSS NW CENTRAL PORTIONS...BUT ATTM HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SFC LOW OR PUT ON PROGS AS WINDS APPEAR WEAK AND MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON LOCATION WHERE ALONG TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE NW SAT TO ALONG TEXAS COAST WITH SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING AGAIN...THEN PUSH BACK TO THE E SUN AS A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRES WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE TEXAS COAST NE ACROSS CENTRAL GULF STATES SUN BEFORE DEEPENING ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY MON. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN EXACT TIMING ON FRONT AND TROUGH LOCATIONS SUN-MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES AND COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 13.5N WITH RESULTANT SEAS AT 7-9 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 4-6 FT SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHILE LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EXTREME NE CARIB WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE WAS REINVIGORATED BY UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IT LATE YDA AND LAST NIGHT AND HAS YET TO DISSIPATE...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THU. NELY FLOW 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 4-5 FT OCCURRING IN WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM PER RECENT SCAT PASSES. ATLC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E-SE THU-SAT AND INCREASE GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN FOR MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...INCLUDING STRONG E TO SE WINDS THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. NOCTURNAL SPEED MAX OFF COLOMBIA ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT AND 11 FT DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FRONTAL REMNANTS TO DRIFT SE AND LAY DOWN ALONG N COAST OF PR FRI FOR INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 17N THROUGH THU AS THE TAIL END OF THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES TO ALONG 19N WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THAT AREA. A NEW PULSE OF NW TO N SWELL HAS BEGUN TO ARRIVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY AND WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE NEXT PULSE OF N SWELL REACHES THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N65W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND REMAINS ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SE OF FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE TONIGHT AND LAY DOWN ALONG 20N THU AND THEN ALONG N COAST OF PR FRI EVENING-NIGHT. THE HIGH CURRENTLY NEAR 30N75W WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E-SE THU THROUGH SAT THEN BECOME STATIONARY THEN SHIFT E ALONG 28N LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PRESENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NW TO N SWELL DOMINATING SEAS...WITH SEAS 8 FT AND GREATER N OF 24N AND E OF 70W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY BY LATE THU THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY NEW PULSE OF N TO NE SWELL CURRENTLY BEING GENERATED ACROSS N CENTRAL ATLC. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE AS HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT 15-20 KT JUST N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THU MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER FROM THE SE GA/NE FL COASTAL WATERS LATE SAT...REACHING FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W SUN MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY STALLS THE FRONT THERE BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES IT BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH MON MORNING AS ATLC RIDGING REBUILDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.