000 AGXX40 KNHC 020636 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 236 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF FOG OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3 NM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF ZONES AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WARM AIR FROM THE SE MOVING ACROSS COLD SSTS STILL IN PLACE IN THAT AREA. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ATLC HIGH PRES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE U.S. GULF COAST STATES ALONG ROUGHLY 30N. MODERATE RETURN FLOW AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE IN THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW AND 4-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF LATE TONIGHT (WED NIGHT) AS TROUGHING AND LOW PRES OVER TEXAS APPROACH THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8 FT AS A RESULT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE THU NIGHT STALLING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS ATLC RIDGING HALTS FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. FRESH NE WINDS WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT SAT MORNING. TROUGHING AND LOW PRES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THE FRONT AND TROUGHING WILL RETREAT TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH BACK TO THE E SUN AS A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRES WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE NW GULF TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY MON MORNING AS IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ARE NOT CLEAR CUT WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES CURRENTLY IN PLACE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH RESULTANT SEAS AT 7-9 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 4-6 FT SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. ALSO RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR THE TAIL END OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH CONTINUES TO KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THU EXPANDING THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND INCREASING WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 30 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 17N THROUGH THU AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MOVES BY JUST N OF 19N WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THAT AREA. NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THIS MORNING WHILE A SET OF NW-N SWELL ARRIVES LATER TODAY GRADUALLY PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N65W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO OCCUR NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE E THROUGH AMZ127 THROUGH THU. MEANWHILE 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 29N75W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD REACHING 65W BY LATE SAT INTO SUN. WINDS IN AMZ111 ARE GENTLE OUT OF THE SE-S ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL...AND VARIABLE IN AMZ113 WITH 4-6 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL. MODERATE N-NE WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. THE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL DECAY TO 7 FT OR LESS ACROSS ALL OF THE ZONES BY LATE THU. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE EXCEPT GENTLE NEAR THE HIGH CENTER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER FROM THE SE GA/NE FL COASTAL WATERS LATE SAT...REACHING FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W SUN MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY STALLS THE FRONT THERE BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES IT BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH MON MORNING AS ATLC RIDGING REBUILDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.