000 AGXX40 KNHC 010641 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE HIGH AT 1021 MB IS JUST W OF TAMPA BAY NEAR 28N84W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 28N/29N. THE GULF HIGH WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH ANOTHER HIGH IN THE ATLC TODAY. MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW IN THE SW HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH WED...WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF AND 4-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE SW HALF LATE WED AND THU AS A COLD FRONT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8 FT AS A RESULT. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN AS THE FRONT BREACHES THE NW GULF BY FRI MORNING...STALLING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N-NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY AND WILL REMAIN N OF THE CARIBBEAN THEREAFTER. ATLC HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH COLOMBIAN LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 6-9 FT SEAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 3-5 FT SEAS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND TO ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND (OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING)...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALSO...WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LATE WED THROUGH LATE THU. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS CURRENTLY AT 6-9 FT...HIGHEST S HALF...WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT THU THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N59W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT COMPLETELY E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY EARLY WED. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT...AND FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS ARE N OF 30N TO 70W W OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH NEAR THE FRONT LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE NW SWELL OF 8-13 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-9 FT BY WED MORNING OVER THE NE CORNER THEN TO 5-7 FT BY THU MORNING. 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA 30N80W WILL SHIFT E REACHING 65W BY EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN FRI THROUGH SAT ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS (1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER BY LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.