000 AGXX40 KNHC 311951 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 351 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...UPDATED GULF OF MEXICO... AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1545 UTC INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER THE FAR NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES ARE NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF...SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW PRES SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...ALONG WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER NE MEXICO. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE HIGH PRES DRIFTS FARTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. DESPITE SIMILARITIES IN THE MASS FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH MID WEEK...THE GFS SHOWS LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK WITH MUCH STRONGER E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF. THE SREF FAVORS THE GFS SHOWING WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE SW GULF BY EARLY THU. OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS A GFS SOLUTION WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT DOWN WIND OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU. ----------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE NE COASTAL PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TONIGHT WITH RIDGE EXTENDING W TO EXTREME NE TEXAS. THIS E TO W RIDGE WILL MOVE N TO ALONG 31N ON TUE THROUGH THU...THEN SHIFT E ON FRI ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO 25N95W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT EARLY SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA TODAY...WITH GENERALLY NE-E 10-15 KT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT WITH NE-E FLOW AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. NE WINDS AT 20-30 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING DIMINISHING TO 15-25 KT FROM LATE MORNING UNTIL LATE EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG PERIOD NE SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 14N...AND WILL RESULT IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT THROUGH TUE MORNING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO E CUBA WILL WEAKEN FROM 24N65W TO HISPANIOLA ON TUE...THEN DISSIPATE N OF PUERTO RICO ON WED. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS EVENING AND SHIFT E TO NEAR 31N73W ON WED NIGHT...AND NEAR 28N69W ON FRI WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NE FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN/DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.