000 AGXX40 KNHC 310522 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 122 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MS DELTA WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WITH A RIDGE BECOMING ORIENTATED E-W FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE FAR NE TX COAST TONIGHT AND TUE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER N AND EXTEND E-W ALONG 31N ON WED AND THU...THEN RETRACT E ON FRI ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW WATERS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS... WHILE NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE E WATERS. EXPECT SE 10-15 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THIS EVENING...EXCEPT E 15-20 KT THROUGHOUT THE FL STRAITS RESULTING STEEP WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT INCREASING THE E-SE FLOW TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY WED. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED NIGHT WITH E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY ON THU WITH THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING SE 20-25 KT ACROSS THE SW GULF...THEN DIMINISHING ON THU NIGHT WITH SE-S 10-15 KT FLOW E OF THE FRONT ON FRI...AND NORTHERLY 10-15 KT W OF THE FRONT EARLY FRI...INCREASING TO 15- 20 KT LATE FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A N-S SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING W THROUGH THE LEEWARDS ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE TO ESE 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT. LONG PERIOD MIXED N...NE AND SE SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 14N...AND WILL RESULT IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT THROUGH TUE MORNING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY NE-E 10- 15 KT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONT LOSES IDENTITY TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT WITH NE-E FLOW AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH SMALL PATCHES OF 20-25 KT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON THU...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THU AND THU NIGHT. NE WINDS AT 20-30 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE EACH MORNING DIMINISHING TO 15- 25 KT FROM LATE MORNING TILL LATE EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA THIS AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUE NIGHT AND WED...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS ON THU AND FRI. EXPECT COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25.5N W OF THE FRONT THROUGH WED...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT W OF 70W ON TUE NIGHT...AND W OF 65W ON WED NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 65W ON THU AND FRI. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT AND SHIFT E ON TUE AND WED...THEN TURN SE TO NEAR 29N72W LATE THU REACHING NEAR 27N68W LATE FRI...ALL THE WHILE HAVING A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NE FL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF THIS RIDGE ON FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.