000 AGXX40 KNHC 300536 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 136 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CEDAR KEY FL TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A CONVECTIVE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ABOUT 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OCCASIONALLY ANALYZED AS A SQUALL LINE...WILL PASS E THROUGH THE FL STRAITS BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTING. A N-S RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS WITH NLY 15-20 KT/SEAS 5- 8 FT REPORTED IN THE BUOY AND RIGG OBSERVATION NETWORK...AND JUST NOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AS EXPECTED OVER THE NE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS E THROUGH THE FL STRAITS LATE THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MON WITH A RIDGE TONIGHT FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BECOMING ORIENTATED E-W FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE FAR NE TX COAST ON MON NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER N AND EXTENDING E-W ALONG 31N ON WED AND THU. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL DEVELOP S AND W OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TODAY...AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS BY LATE MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT INCREASING THE E-SE FLOW TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF... EXCEPT 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED...AND EXPECT SE 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS ON THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A N-S SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING E THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A ENE TO ESE 15 KT WIND SHIFT. LONG PERIOD MIXED N AND NE SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT PER A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS...ARE STILL PROPAGATING S ACROSS THESE TROPICAL ATLC ZONES...AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN THE MIXED SWELL BY LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH N-NE FLOW AT 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TODAY...QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT BY THIS EVENING. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL REACH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA ON MON AFTERNOON WITH 10-15 KT NE FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON MON NIGHT WITH NE 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA BRIEFLY ON TUE. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON WED AND THU...WITH NE-E WINDS AT 15- 20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE NW CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THU NIGHT. NE WINDS AT 20-30 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE EACH MORNING DIMINISHING TO 15- 25 KT FROM LATE MORNING TILL LATE EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE FL COAST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD SOON SUPPORT S-SW 20-25 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH NW 20-30 KT WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA THE SE BAHAMAS MON MORNING...AND SLOW FROM 31N55W TO HISPANIOLA ON TUE MORNING. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON WED...AND DISSIPATE NE OF THE LEEWARDS ON THU. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE S CAROLINA COAST ON TUE AND SHIFT E TO NEAR 31N76W ON WED WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO NE FL. THE HIGH SHOULD REACH NEAR 30N70W ON THU WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NE FL. EXPECT COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N THROUGH WED...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT W OF 70W ON WED NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 67W ON THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.