000 AGXX40 KNHC 291857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. 12 UTC MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND LOW PERCENTAGE OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED TO THE FAR SE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NW GULF AND NW PORTION OF THE N CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PR-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SW TO 26N93W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ACTIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SE U.S. WITH ITS SOUTHERN PORTION STRETCHING S TO THE N CENTRAL GULF. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NWS RADAR ANIMATION SHOWS VERY ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NE GULF ZONE 15. THIS ACTIVITY CONTAINS FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND IS QUICKLY MOVING ESE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH OIL PLATFORMS ARE REPORTING N-NE 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 91W...AND NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 91W. WINDS SE OF THE FRONT ARE S-SW 15-20 KT N OF THE RIDGE...AND SE-S 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN. THE AFOREMENTIONED TSTM WILL SPREAD SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD MON THROUGH THU AS LOW PRES AGAIN FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TUE THROUGH THU WHILE THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC PRES EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT WILL INDUCE MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF TUE AND WED...WITH E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. BY THU...THE GRADIENT INCREASES FURTHER WITH FRESH SE WINDS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND S CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE WARNING EARLIER IN EFFECT FOR WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS JUST GETTING SET TO EXPIRE...HOWEVER EXPECT THE STRONG NE WINDS THERE TO POSSIBLY HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. NE-E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO THEN DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT DURING SUN MORNING...AND TO 15-20 KT SUN NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 10-14 FT SEAS WITHIN THE GALE WARNING AREA WILL SUBSIDE TO 11 LATE TONIGHT AND TO 9 FT IN A NE SWELL MON. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR NE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN EVENING...THEN BECOME A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR 17N86W BY EARLY MON. LARGE N SWELLS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND A LOW PERCENTAGE OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN MEDIUM THEREAFTER. THE 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW TO S FLORIDA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY EXHIBITING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NW WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS GUSTY WINDS. THE 1446 UTC ASCAT PASS VIVIDLY HIGHLIGHTED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-3 KT IN THE NW PORTION. GRADIENT THERE IS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED BY THE TSTMS ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE GRADIENT THERE TO REMAIN TIGHT INTO SUN AS THE UPPER LEVEL ARE CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAIN THE TSTM ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COASTS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N77W TO WESTERN CUBA EARLY SUN...FROM NEAR 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA SUN EVENING...FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 24N70W AND WEAKENING STATIONARY TO EASTERN CUBA EARLY MON...AND FROM NEAR 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OVER THE AREA. BY THU...HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AT THAT TIME ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE. NW SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE NE WATERS SUN INTO TUE...BUT WILL SUBSIDE WED AND THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.