000 AGXX40 KNHC 290534 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 134 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CEDAR KEY FL TO NEAR 27.5N95W WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KT/SEAS 5-8 FT...WITH THE ELEVATED PLATFORMS NEAR 28N88W REPORTING 25 KT. DENSE FOG REPORTED AS WELL OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE N OF 27N W OF 90W. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING DEVELOPING ALONG 26N TO THE E OF 87W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS MOVING OFFSHORE THE NE TX COAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO NOTED E OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING ONSHORE THE LA COAST AND NEW TSTMS FORMING NEAR 29N90W...ALL REFLECTED IN THE INITIAL WEATHER GRIDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED INITIALLY BY ONLY A SW-W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT...WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT W OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH THE TROUGH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING W OF THE FRONT...AND BRIEFLY INCREASING THE NLY FLOW TO 20-25 KT WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NE WATERS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA LATE SUN MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS ON SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH A RIDGE BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE FAR NE TX COAST ON MON NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 10- 15 KT S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUE. THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS ON TUE NIGHT INCREASING THE E-SE FLOW TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT 20-25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL TROUGH DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS THERE IS STILL SCT/LOCALLY BKN LOW-MID CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXTENDING W FROM HAITI TO JAMAICA THEN CONTINUING WNW TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO A NARROW BAND OF NE 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST LATE SUN THROUGH LATE TUE...THEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH A LARGER AREA OF ENHANCED NE FLOW ON WED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE TO ESE 15 KT WIND SHIFT. LONG PERIOD MIXED N AND NE SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT...ARE ALREADY PROPAGATING ACROSS THESE TROPICAL ATLC ZONES...AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND SUNRISE ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW AT 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL REACH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA ON MON AFTERNOON WITH 10-15 NE FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON MON NIGHT WITH NE 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA BRIEFLY ON TUE...AND ELY WINDS AT 15-20 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON WED NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH OR SHEAR LINE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM 26N55W TO 23N80W SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY TODAY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT 20-25 KT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...AND GENERALLY E-SE WINDS AT 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE S OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING... DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SLY FLOW AT 15-20 KT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT FOR 20-25 KT NEAR 31N77W. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH S-SW 20-25 KT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE SE GA COAST WITH NW 20-25 KT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA THE SE BAHAMAS LATE MON MORNING...AND SLOW FROM 31N55W TO HISPANIOLA ON TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE S CAROLINA COAST ON TUE AND SHIFT E TO NEAR 32N74W ON WED WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE FL. EXPECT COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N THROUGH WED WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT W OF 65W ON WED NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING THIS MORNING. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.