000 AGXX40 KNHC 281912 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LOW PERCENTAGE OF 12 GFS/MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS RELATED TO NEXT COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH SLY FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF AS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF ATLC AND LOW PRES OVER WESTERN TEXAS PREVAILS. THESE CONDITIONS WERE CONFIRMED IN THE EASTERN GULF PORTION BY THE 1506 UTC ASCAT PASS...IN ADDITION TO THE BUOYS THERE. THE BUOYS AND A FEW SHIPS OVER ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF ABOUT 4-6 FT ACROSS THE GULF ...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF 6-8 FT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND FAR SE PORTIONS. ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH COLD FRONT OFF TEXAS COAST TO MOVE SE. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BRO BY 00Z THIS EVENING. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TAMPA BAY FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY MON. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO 25N88W TO SE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W BY TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT ACROSS GREAT PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT FOR NW GULF TO HAVE N-NE 20 KT WINDS AND N CENTRAL GULF WITH NW-N 20 KT WINDS...WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 6-7 FT LATE SAT AND SUN. TAIL END OF FRONT TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO JUST N OF YUCATAN PENINSULA WED. 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E WINDS WILL COVER THE GULF SEAS TO 8 FT WED...WITH SEAS HIGHEST SEAS IN CENTRAL GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12 GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. USED NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS FOR WAVES. THE 1508 UTC ASCAT VIVIDLY REVEALED A SWATH OF STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WERE NOTED FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. IN ADDITION...SHIP "ZCDG4" REPORTED MINIMAL GALE WINDS A SHORT WHILE AGO. TRADES ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH CATEGORY...EXCEPT W OF 70W WHERE E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM THIS MORNING CAPTURES SEAS OF 10-13 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO RECENT GUIDANCE...AND GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN NEXT 24 HOURS AND W ATLC HIGH SHIFTS ENE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN A MODEST DOWNWARD TREND BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS VERY SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CONTINUES TO SHRINK S PORTIONS AND UPSTREAM TRADES REMAIN IN 15-20 KT RANGE FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE NW TO N SWELLS FROM E COAST BOMB TO ENTER N PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH 12 UTC MWW3 AND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA...WHILE A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ENE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S AND NE FL COAST SAT NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR FROM BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA ON SUN NIGHT...THEN FROM FROM NEAR 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA LATE MON...AND TO SE OF THE AREA LATE TUE. THE WIND REGIME OVER THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WED WITH WINDS IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE. NW SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE NE WATERS SUN AND MON...BUT SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY TUE AND WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... WITHIN 90 NM COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.