000 AGXX40 KNHC 271849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS OF GFS/ECMWF. FOR WAVES GFS/ECMWF WITH LOW PERCENTAGE OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A VERY PRONOUNCED SE WIND FLOW OF MODERATE TO FRESH INTENSITY. THESE WINDS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION INTERACTING WITH LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE BUOYS STILL SHOW RATHER HIGH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF NEAR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT IN A NE SWELL IN THE SW GULF AS NOTED IN BUOY 42055 AT 22N94W...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WHERE A PREDOMINATE E-SE SWELL COMPONENT IS EVIDENT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE GENERALLY ABOUT 4-6 FT...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENERGY ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM BRANCH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAT STRETCHES NEWD ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE GULF. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST FRI NIGHT IT SPREADS EASTWARD TO THE NE GULF ZONE. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO E OF THE GULF ...AND TO THE WESTERN ATLC BY FRI AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS LOW PRES APPROACHES EASTERN TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF NEAR DAYBREAK ON SAT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE SAT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS BY LATE SUN...AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA AS AN ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY DURING NIGHT. HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF SUN AND MON...KEEPING RATHER LOW SEAS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS THROUGHOUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS OF GFS/ECMWF. FOR WAVES USED NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A SHEARLINE FROM HAITI WSW TO NEAR 18N81W. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING MAINLY FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADES THROUGHOUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ZONE 31 WHERE MOSTLY STRONG NE TRADES ARE NOTED. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA DEPICTED FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT E OF 68W...AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT IN ZONE 31 WHERE SEAS ARE MUCH HIGHER...IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE WITH 10-15 FT IN THE GALE AREA. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT IN THE SW PART OF ZONE 33. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SHEARLINE TO BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. STRONG HIGH ATLC HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SAT...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND ALSO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC SECTIONS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT...THEN DROP TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUE...AND OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC AS A RATHER WEAK PRES PATTERN SETS UP OVER THOSE AREAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH SEAS MAXING OUT TO AROUND 12 FT... ARE FORECAST TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE SUN. BY MON AND TUE...SEAS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE...WITH JUST A SMALL POCKET OF 6-8 FT SEAS IN THE SE PORTION. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS OF GFS/ECMWF. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS...SHORTLY TO TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE. STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE NEAR FUTURE SHEAR LINE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE FRI NIGHT. THE STRONG HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND WEAKEN. LARGE NW TO N LONG PERIOD SWELLS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM W TO E FRI THROUGH SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...REACH FROM NEAR 31N70W TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE SUN...AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE FAR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON. THE FRONT...SIMILARLY TO THE PRESENT ONE...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS TUE. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR LINE. MOSTLY FRESH TO POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION ON MON. LARGE NW SWELLS WILL HAMPER MAINLY THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS MON AND TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.