000 AGXX40 KNHC 270840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 440 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF. STRONG HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING TO MID ATLC COAST ATTM WITH WINDS W PORTIONS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY VEER. TPW ANIMATIONS SHOW ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGING ACROSS W PORTIONS AND WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO TX AND LA NEXT 24 HOURS. ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED NW AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD. ESE WINDS 20-25 PREVAIL ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS WHILE WINDS NW PART ARE MORE SE ATTM. BUOY 42020 HAS RISEN TO 10 FT PAST FEW HOURS...WHILE 42055 AT 11 FT MOSTLY IN 9 SEC ELY WINDSWELL. THESE VALUES 1-3 FT ABOVE WW3 AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THROUGH 24 HRS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO RECENT GUIDANCE WITH STRONG HIGH SHIFTING E INTO W ATLC AND WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER TO SLY RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTED ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND TOWARDS GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED FRONT TO STALL ACROSS E TEXAS THROUGH 48 HRS BEFORE NEXT S/W MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. PICKS IT UP AND FORCES FRONT SE QUICKLY ACROSS NW PORTIONS DAY 3...THEN CONTINUING SE THROUGH WEEKEND AND STALLING FROM FL KEYS TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT TO PRODUCE MODEST GRADIENT WITH NELY WINDS GENERALLY 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT INTO SHEARLINE ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. WINDS NW OF FRONT ALREADY VEERING ELY YIELDING CONTRAST IN WAVE HEIGHTS N AND S OF SHEARLINE. ATLC RIDGE BUILDING SE BEHIND FRONT AS HIGH SHIFTS TO MID ATLC COAST AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO HAVE COMMENCED ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST...AND SHOULD PULSE TO GALES AT NIGHT NEXT TWO NIGHTS AS WELL. WINDS THERE MAY ONLY DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING AGAIN AROUND 00Z AND PEAKING AT NEAR 40 KT AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE...AS HIGH SHIFT N OF BASIN TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE BASIN WIDE...WITH NW PORTIONS GRADUALLY VEERING SE. FRESH WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS TO KEEP SEAS IN 6-8 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. NE TRADES TO BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THIS EVENING AND REMAIN UP AROUND 20 KT THROUGH FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRES SHIFT N OF THE AREA. LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH NW ATLC BOMB TO REACH ATLC WATERS OF NE CARIB ISLANDS THU NIGHT AND BECOME MORE NLY AND BIG FRI...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES OF NE CARIB...AND REACH W AND NW COASTS OF EXPOSED LESSER ANTILLES...AS WELL AS NARROW PORTIONS OF N COASTS OF VENEZUELA. SWELL EXPECTED TO PEAK 9-10 FT AT 16 SECS FRI ACROSS NE CARIB ISLANDS AND WILL IMPACT COASTAL ZONES AND BEACHES STRONGLY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC WHILE SINKING SLOWLY SSE INTO SE PORTIONS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 22N65W TO NW COAST OF HAITI. FRONT WEAKENING TO SHEARLINE ATTM AND HIGH SHIFTING OFF MID ATLC COAST WILL INCREASE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS N OF FRONT TO BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT GENERALLY S OF 25N TO SHEARLINE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE FRI. AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER NE TONIGHT AND FRI...WINDS ACROSS W PORTIONS WILL VEER SE THEN S AND REMAIN NEAR 20 KT...WITH SWELL FROM NW ATLC BOMB SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SEA STATE ANALYSIS PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS WW3 STILL 2-4 FT LOW AND GREATER ACROSS N PORTIONS...WITH BUOYS 41047 AND 41048 A FEW FEET ABOVE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE. AS STATED PAST FEW NIGHTS...WW3 HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY 2-3 FT LOWER THAN ALL OTHER GLOBAL WAVE MODELS AVAILABLE AND HAVE THUS CONTINUED TO BLEND IN LARGE % OF ECWAVE. OLD SCHOOL NOMOGRAM CALCULATIONS OF WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THESE TWO BUOYS SUGGESTS THAT SWELL WILL HIT NE CARIB ISLANDS FRI MORNING AROUND 9 FT AT 16 SEC AND WILL NOT FADE MUCH THROUGH SAT MORNING. HIGH TIDES RUNNING AT MODERATE LEVELS THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE BREAKERS AND YIELD COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ACROSS EXPOSED COASTLINES. WINDS AND SEAS TO FADE QUICKLY SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.