000 AGXX40 KNHC 261901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LOW PERCENTAGE OF 12 UTC BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL OF GFS/ECMWF. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FOR WAVES USED BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR . STRONG HIGH PRES HAS FILTERED IN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RECENT COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA PER OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOYS AND REPORTS FROM A FEW SHIPS NOTED OVER SE GULF AND NEAR THE COAST OF NW CUBA. WINDS ARE FROM THE NE FRESH TO MODERATE IN SPEEDS E OF 91W...AND E-SE MAINLY MODERATE IN SPEEDS W OF 91W. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE S OF 26N E OF 94W...AND 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN THE NW PORTION. AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF SPREADING EASTWARD. THIS AREA OF WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF ZONES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY FRI ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY ON SAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE SAT...AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATE SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN GULF BY LATE MON ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN THE ONE THE PRESENT SET-UP. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LOW PERCENTAGE OF THE 12 GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL OF GFS/ECMWF. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH LOW PERCENTAGE OF 12 UTC MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS PUSHED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN PORTION...AND BECOME STATIONARY ROUGHLY ALONG 19N W OF 83W...AND NE FROM THERE TO ACROSS E/CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING SE BEHIND IT. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES THROUGHOUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ZONE 31 WHERE FRESH NE TRADES ARE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT WITHIN THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES... AND BEHIND THE FRONT HERE MUCH HIGHER SEAS OF 8 FT ARE OCCURRING. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI BEFORE THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL...SW AND NE PORTIONS THROUGH FRI. GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COMMENCE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH BRIEFLY ON THU BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI. ON SAT...THESE WINDS DROP AGAIN TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MON THERE AND OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC AS A RATHER WEAK PRES PATTERN SETS UP OVER THESE AREAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH SEAS MAXING OUT TO 9-12 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE SAT AND SUN. BY MON...SEAS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LOW PERCENTAGE OF THE 12 GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N65W SW TO 24N70W...AND TO E/CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 24N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS EVENING...AND TO THE FAR SE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE FRI AND WEAKEN. LARGE SWELLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI...WITH LINGERING SWELLS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE U.S. ON SAT AND EMERGE OVER THE NW WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE SUN..AND FROM 28N65W TO NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON. MOSTLY FRESH NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC N OF 29N E OF 68W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.