000 AGXX40 KNHC 260833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 433 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SE GULF AND INTO NW CUBA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL PAST COUPLE HOURS...EXTENDING W ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN ARCHING S INTO E CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE FRONT S OF BUOY 42055 WHICH STILL HAS DP OF 72F. NLY FLOW 20-25 KT PERSISTS ACROSS E AND NE PORTIONS WHERE SEAS ARE 6-10 FT BASED ON RECENT OBS...AND WW3 A FEW FT LOW. NE TO E FLOW DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND 20-25 KT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WHERE SEAS LIKELY 7-10 FT...AND AGAIN ABOVE WW3. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT SHIFTING E INTO MO VALLEY AND WINDS ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ALREADY VEERING ESE. FRONT DAMMED UP AGAINST ERN SLOPES OF SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALES AND FRESH ELY FLOW PRODUCING WIDESPREAD BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP...WITH CNVTV PRECIP S OF 21N ATTM. FLOW ACROSS BASIN WILL VEER GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WEAKEN E PORTIONS....BECOMING SE 25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF NW PART BY EVENING...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING WINDS INCREASING 25-30 KT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS COAST AT 00Z. FAIRLY STRAIGHT SE FETCH ACROSS THE W HALF DURING THIS TIME WILL PUMP UP SEAS THROUGH THU MIDDAY OR SO...AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 8-10 FT ACROSS TEXAS AND SW LA COASTAL WATERS. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING REGION HANGS UP ACROSS NE TEXAS THU NIGHT AS DEEP LOW SHIFTS NE INTO GREAT LAKES...AND SHIFTS STRONG LLVL FLOW INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS THU NIGHT WHERE SEAS ALSO LIKELY TO JUMP UP TO 8-9 FT BRIEFLY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SAT AND REACH CENTRAL FL TO SW GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT S CENTRAL PORTIONS S OF 14N...WHERE BUOY 42050 HAS DROPPED TO 6 FT. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SINKING S ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL CUBA WHILE FRONT JUST BEHIND AND MOVING ACROSS CHANNEL AS WELL...WITH EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWING NE WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT AS IT APPROACHED CHANNEL. SEAS TO BUILD QUICKLY THROUGH CHANNEL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WAVE AGAINST CURRENT EFFECT INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFT SE INTO SERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING NOCTURNAL MAX OFF OF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE EACH OF NEXT 3 NIGHTS. BASED ON LATEST GFS I HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR BRIEF 6 HR PERIOD TONIGHT 06-12Z THU...AND CONTINUED WITH MORE EXTENDED GALES FRI AND SAT NIGHTS. NWPS OUTPUT LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS CARIB AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN BLEND. FRONT TO LAY DOWN E TO W THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS NW PORTIONS THU THOUGH FRI MORNING. ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN TRADES BASIN WIDE BY THU NIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY TO N...AND HAVE INCREASE GALES OFF COLOMBIA TO 40 KT THU NIGHT. TWO PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NWLY SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES...ASSOCIATED WITH BOMBING E COAST LOW. FIRST SIG PULSE ARRIVING LATE THU AFTERNOON-EVENING AND THEN BIG NNW AT 15-17 SECS FRI MORNING. THIS SECOND PULSE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MONA PASSAGE AND REACH NARROW PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA BY SAT MORNING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND COLD FRONT JUST PUSHED THROUGH BERMUDA AND EXTENDS SW THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO CENTRAL CUBA...WITH REINFORCING BOUNDARY BEHIND IT FROM 31N69W TO S CENTRAL FL...WITH DP BELOW 30F BEHIND IT. GALES EXPECTED N OF 28N E OF FIRST FRONT...AND N OF 27N ON BOTH SIDES OF SECONDARY BOUNDARY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH GALES TO 40 KT THOUGH 12Z WED BEHIND FRONTS...THEN GALES SHIFT NE AND OUT OF AREA BY 00Z THU. FRONTAL REMNANTS TO MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS EARLY THU WITH INCREASED PRES GRADIENT BEHIND BOUNDARY TO EFFECT A SHEAR LINE AND 20-25 KT ENE FLOW INTO BAHAMAS THEN E THROUGH STRAITS THU MORNING THROUGH EVENING BEFORE HIGH SHIFTS TO JUST N OF BERMUDA AND LIGHTS UP WINDS 20-25 KT ALONG BOUNDARY BECOMING SE INTO FL E COAST. WINDS TO WEAKEN BY SAT AS HIGH SHIFTS NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC AND BOUNDARY BECOME DIFFUSE. ASSOCIATED SWELL CURRENTLY BEING GENERATED BEHIND FRONTS AND LOW IN W ATLC WILL AFFECT REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT OBS INDICATE THAT WW3 SLIGHTLY LOW IN BROAD SENSE AND SEVERAL FT LOW ACROSS W ATLC WHERE BUOY 41002 HOLDING AT 22 FT WHERE WW3 FCSTS 13 FT ATTM AND ECWAVE 17 FT. WE CONTINUE TO BLEND ECWAVE STRONGLY INTO SWH. MODEL OUTPUT ACROSS REGION S OF 26N SHOWS WW3 LOWEST OF ALL GLOBAL WAVE MODELS BY 2-4 FT...WHICH HAS BEEN A TREND IN THIS SEASONS EVENTS...AND SINCE WW3 UPGRADE. SWELL TO SNEAK BEHIND BAHAMAS TODAY AND AGAINST GULF STREAM FOR ENHANCED WAVES THERE THROUGH TONIGHT. SECONDARY PULSE OF NNW SWELL EXPECTED INTO SE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND TO SLAM N AND NW COASTS OF NE CARIB ISLANDS FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT AT 15-17 SECS AND WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IN PROBLEM AREAS...EXTENDING SE INTO LESSER ANTILLES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.