000 AGXX40 KNHC 251827 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 227 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SEWD...AND AS OF 18 UTC IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA SW TO 23N90W...AND CONTINUES SW TO SW GULF NEAR 20N96W. STILL VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TSTMS WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS ON TRACK TO PUSH SE OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES E OF NE FLORIDA WILL KEEP NLY WINDS IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME DIMINISHING EXPECTED WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BRIEFLY LATE WED BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THU AND FRI AS THE HIGH PRES SLIDES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SAT...AND REACH FROM NEAR SW FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE ON SUN. N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN WATERS ON SAT BEFORE DIMINISHNG ON SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH WED EVENING AS ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NE ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT...AND INTO THE NW PORTION ALONG 21N BY WED. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE THU. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGH THROUGH FRI...INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE REGION. LARGE N SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THU EVENING AND THROUGH SAT...THEN SUBSIDE ON SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF WAVES. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRES NEAR 31N75W 1006 MB WITH A COLD FRONT SW TO INLAND E CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 20N70W AND TO 25N66W. THE 1428 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE COLD FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR N OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND FOR W OF THE COLD FRONT FOR N OF 27N INTO WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT N OF THE IN A SHORT WHILE WHILE IT BEGINS TO UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THE WARM FRONT NE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE TONIGHT...FROM NEAR 26N65W TO 21N69W AND WEAKENING TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS THU INTO FRI BEFORE WEAKENING ON SAT. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE NW WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT. LARGE NW SWELLS WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU...WITH LINGERING LARGE SWELLS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION BY FRI. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS FRI AND SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE U.S. ON SAT...AND INTO THE NW WATERS SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING WED NIGHT INTO FRI. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING N OF 29N LATE TONIGHT...AND N OF 27N WED. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED...N OF 29N TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.