000 AGXX40 KNHC 231840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS COLD FRONT ALONG TEXAS COAST FROM HOUSTON TO S OF CORPUS CHRISTIE. 15 TO 20 KT N WINDS N OF FRONT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT N OF FRONT. 10 KT SE WINDS REMAIN OVER SW GULF WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. VERY WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE E GULF. 5 TO 10 KT SE TO E FLOW GENERALLY PREVAILS OVER THE E GULF WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. EXPECT EVENING TROUGH OVER YUCATAN TO YIELD AN AREA OF 15-20 KT OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN AND SHIFTING W INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH COLD FRONT OFF TEXAS COAST TO MOVE SE. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BRO BY 00Z THIS EVENING. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TAMPA BAY FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY MON. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO 25N88W TO SE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W BY TUE. 1030-ISH HIGH BEHIND FRONT ACROSS GREAT PLAINS TO FORCE SUFFICIENT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT FOR NW GULF TO HAVE 20 KT NE WINDS SEAS TO 6 FT TUE. TAIL END OF FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO YUST N OF YUCATAN PENINSULA WED. 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E WINDS WILL COVER THE GULF SEAS TO 8 FT WED. HIGHEST SEAS IN CENTRAL GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS MOST RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED STRONG TRADES HAVE SHIFTED BACK INTO S CENTRAL PORTIONS AND REBUILDING SEAS THERE AFTER A BRIEF SUBSIDING TREND DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY. SOLID AREA OF 25 KT DEPICTED BY ASCAT PASS OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE WINDS 25-30 KT INSIDE GULF OF VENEZUELA. BUOY 42058 BACK UP TO 8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WHILE FLOW IS MORE SELY ACROSS NW PORTIONS. EXPECTED SEAS 25 TO 30 KT AND 10-11 FT OFF COLOMBIA. AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO RECENT GUIDANCE...AND GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN NEXT 24 HOURS AND W ATLC HIGH SHIFTS ENE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO GULF OF MEXICO. MERGED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CUBA EARLY WED AND MAY DRIFT A BIT FARTHER SE BEFORE STALLING AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE EARLY THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN A MODEST DOWNWARD TREND BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS VERY SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CONTINUES TO SHRINK S PORTIONS AND UPSTREAM TRADES REMAIN IN 15-20 KT RANGE FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELL FROM E COAST BOMB TO ENTER N PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA AND WILL SHIFT ENE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SSE INTO N PORTION TODAY. PRESENTLY...A TROUGH IS OFFSHORE OF E COAST OF FL ALONG ABOUT 77W...WITH SLY FLOW TO 20 KT ON E SIDE OF TROUGH...AND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY UNDERFORECAST BY GFS. TROUGH TO BE FORCED ESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AREA...APPROACHING NW PORTIONS BY 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN RACING QUICKLY SEWD AND REACHING NEAR 31N57W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 00Z TUE. A WAVE ALONG FRONT ALONG E COAST OF FL WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE ON TUE AND INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS...WITH LOW MOVING NNE ALONG E SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH AND UP E COAST OF U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT DURING PAST FEW RUNS...WITH ECMWF TRYING TO RESOLVE SEVERAL VORTS DUMBELLING AROUND A MEAN VORTEX AND NOW HAS MORE COMPLEX CIRCULATION FARTHER SE THAN RECENT RUNS...THE GFS STILL FASTER AND FARTHER N...WHILE UKMET IN BETWEEN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW TO BEGIN TO BETTER ORGANIZE AS IT SHIFTING N AND OFFSHORE OF OUTER BANKS TUE NIGHT AND THEN BOMBS OUT OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH LATE WED. GALE WARNINGS LIKELY ACROSS N PORTIONS OF AREA IN SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND SHIFTING NE AND OUT OF AREA WED...WHILE NW GALE WARNINGS EXPECTED N OF 28/29N BEHIND FRONT TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. HAVE TREND TO BLEND A CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS THAT REFLECTS ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND IN QUITE REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH OPC ATTM. ASSOCIATED SWELL WILL INITIALLY BE MORE NWLY BEHIND FRONT BEFORE LARGE AND POWERFUL NNW SWELL OVERTAKES FIRST PULSE AS LOW BOMBS OFF NEW ENGLAND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.