000 AGXX40 KNHC 230822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 422 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS NE GULF WITH VERY WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING E...AND THIS PORTION OF RIDGE CUT OFF FROM ATLC DUE TO TROFFING OFF E COAST OF FL. LIGHT E TO SE FLOW GENERALLY PREVAILS N OF 25N WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. E TO SE WINDS 10-15 KT ARE GENERALLY S OF 25N WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS...WITH EXCEPTION OF YUCATAN EVENING TROUGH YIELDING AN AREA OF 15-20 KT OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN AND SHIFTING W INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SEEN ON STLT IMAGERY ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND LIMITING VSBYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH COLD FRONT ACROSS SE TEXAS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AND INTO NW WATERS BY NOON...WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH E TO W TO THE S OF FRONT. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM BIG BEND TO BRO BY 00Z THIS EVENING...STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO NE MEXICAN COAST BY 00Z TUE WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY DRY FRONT BLASTING SE ACROSS THE BASIN AND MERGES WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY AND TO REACH FROM STRAITS OF FL TO NEAR VERACRUZ. 1030-ISH HIGH BEHIND FRONT ACROSS GREAT PLAINS TO FORCE SUFFICIENT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT FOR VERY BROAD AREA OF 25 KT N TO NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT...BUILDING SEAS QUICKLY TO NEAR 8 FT W CENTRAL PORTIONS THEN 7-10 FT ON WED. WINDS TO VEER ELY WED THEN E TO SE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AND INCREASE ACROSS NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT DEEPENING LOW MOVING ACROSS ROCKIES...TO YIELD 25-30 KT SE WINDS ACROSS TEXAS NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS WED EVENING. HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED SWH DURING THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER WAVE GROWTH IN MODELS...AND IN GENERALY TREND TOWARDS ECWAVE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS MOST RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED STRONG TRADES HAVE SHIFTED BACK INTO S CENTRAL PORTIONS AND REBUILDING SEAS THERE AFTER A BRIEF SUBSIDING TREND DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY. SOLID AREA OF 25 KT DEPICTED BY 0240Z ASCAT PASS OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE WINDS 25-30 KT INSIDE GULF OF VENEZUELA. BUOY 42058 BACK UP TO 8 FT IN PAST HOUR. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WHILE FLOW IS MORE SELY ACROSS NW PORTIONS. EXPECTED NOCTURNAL MAX TO 30 KT AND 10-11 FT OFF COLOMBIA IN NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO RECENT GUIDANCE...AND GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN NEXT 24 HOURS AND W ATLC HIGH SHIFTS ENE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO GULF OF MEXICO. MERGED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CUBA EARLY WED AND MAY DRIFT A BIT FARTHER SE BEFORE STALLING AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE EARLY THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN A MODEST DOWNWARD TREND BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS VERY SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CONTINUES TO SHRINK S PORTIONS AND UPSTREAM TRADES REMAIN IN 15-20 KT RANGE FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELL FROM E COAST BOMB TO ENTER N PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA AND WILL SHIFT ENE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SSE INTO N PORTIONS TONIGHT. PRESENTLY...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNAKES WSW INTO SE PORTIONS TO NEAR 25N67W AND HAS BEEN DRIFTING N...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH IS OFFSHORE OF E COAST OF FL ALONG ABOUT 79W...WITH SLY FLOW TO 20 KT ON E SIDE OF TROUGH...AND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY UNDERFORECAST BY GFS. TROUGH TO BE FORCED ESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AREA...APPROACHING NW PORTIONS BY 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN RACING QUICKLY SEWD AND REACHING NEAR 31N57W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 00Z TUE. A WAVE ALONG FRONT ALONG E COAST OF FL WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE ON TUE AND INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS...WITH LOW MOVING NNE ALONG E SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH AND UP E COAST OF U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT DURING PAST FEW RUNS...WITH ECMWF TRYING TO RESOLVE SEVERAL VORTS DUMBELLING AROUND A MEAN VORTEX AND NOW HAS MORE COMPLEX CIRCULATION FARTHER SE THAN RECENT RUNS...THE GFS STILL FASTER AND FARTHER N...WHILE UKMET IN BETWEEN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW TO BEGIN TO BETTER ORGANIZE AS IT SHIFTING N AND OFFSHORE OF OUTER BANKS TUE NIGHT AND THEN BOMBS OUT OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH LATE WED. GALES LIKELY ACROSS N PORTIONS OF AREA IN SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND SHIFTING NE AND OUT OF AREA WED...WHILE NW GALES EXPECTED N OF 28/29N BEHIND FRONT TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. HAVE TREND TO BLEND A CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS THAT REFLECTS ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND IN QUITE REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH OPC ATTM. ASSOCIATED SWELL WILL INITIALLY BE MORE NWLY BEHIND FRONT BEFORE LARGE AND POWERFUL NNW SWELL OVERTAKES FIRST PULSE AS LOW BOMBS OFF NEW ENGLAND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.