000 AGXX40 KNHC 220832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 432 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS MODERATE RETURN FLOW PRESENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE W 2/3RD OF BASIN AS WEAK W ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS SW INTO NE PORTIONS. BKN LOW CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON STLT IMAGERY LIFTING N AND NW INTO TEXAS AND COASTAL LOUISIANA. CRP SOUNDING SHOWS HUGE LLVL INVERSION AND THUS PATCHY DENSE FOG TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS SHELF WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO RECENT FORECAST REASONING...WITH SLIGHTLY REDUCE PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT ON TUE...AND PEAK NELY FLOW ONLY EXPECTED TO AROUND 25 KT. ECMWF SUGGESTS CHANCE FOR 25-30 KT FLOW NW PORTIONS WED AS FLOW VEERS SE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT DEEPENING LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. FIRST COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SINK S INTO NRN COASTAL WATERS SUN AFTERNOON WITH MODELS SHOWING PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE S...THEN FEATURES MERGING FROM JUST N OF TAMPA BAY TO NEAR 25N97.5W SUN NIGHT. REINFORCING DRY FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF BASIN MON NIGHT AND RACE SE TO MERGE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY AND MOVE SE INTO S PORTIONS TUE NIGHT TO ALONG ABOUT 23N BY WED AFTERNOON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS MOST RECENT SCAT PASSES 01-02Z SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 14N FROM SE TO CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS MORNING...BUT MISSED COASTAL COLOMBIA WHERE MAX WIND LIKELY. AN AFTERNOON ALTIMETER PASS MEASURED SEAS 10-11 FT DOWNWIND OF PEAK WINDS OFF COLOMBIA NEAR 10.5N78W...AND A BIT SW OF GLOBAL MODELS...PARTIALLY DUE TO MODEL RESOLUTION LIMITATIONS. 1024 MB HIGH ACROSS W ATLC AND WEAK TAIL OF FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC INTO WINDWARD PASSAGE PRODUCING MODEST PRES GRADIENT...AND THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH GFS INDICATING WINDS OFF COLOMBIA PULSING TO 30 KT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. GRADIENT TO RELAX MON AS FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS SE ACROSS SW N ATLC AND STRONG TRADES REDUCE IN AREAL COVERAGE TO COLOMBIAN JET REGION...THEN REDUCE FURTHER TUE-WED AS LOW BOMBS OUT ACROSS W ATLC. ASSOCIATED SWELL EXPECTED TO LEAK INTO NE CARIB PASSAGES BEGINNING THU NIGHT...THEN INCREASE LATE FRI AS SWELL BECOME MORE NLY. THIS LARGE NNW SWELL LIKELY TO MAKE IT TO COAST OF VENEZUELA BY SUN MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO E ATLC AND TRADES DROP OFF TO 15 KT OR LESS MON. SWELL FROM E COAST BOMB TO ENTER N PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS STATIONARY BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM NE TO SW AND THROUGH EXTREME SE BAHAMAS TO WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WEAK ATLC RIDGE TO THE NW TO SHIFT ENE TODAY THEN ACCELERATE ENE THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE INTO W ATLC AND LOCAL WATERS. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY TO INCREASE TODAY TO 15-20 KT ACROSS W PORTIONS AS FRONT APPROACHES E SEABOARD...AND ENTERS NW PORTIONS LATE SUN NIGHT...REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL MON AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING...AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS NE U.S. AND REINFORCING DRY FRONT APPROACHES NW PORTIONS EARLY TUE. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON CYCLOGENESIS ALONG SE U.S. COAST TUE WITH LOW SHIFTING NE AND BEGINNING TO BOMB OFFSHORE OF OUTER BANKS. AGAIN...STILL PREFER ECMWF DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ENSEMBLE...WHILE GFS A BIT FAST AND TO THE N OF GLOBAL MODELS. MERGED FRONT TO PUSH QUICKLY SE TUE NIGHT-WED AND REACH 27N65W TO STRAITS OF FL BY WED AFTERNOON. LARGE NW SWELL TO BE GENERATED BEHIND FRONT...AND THEN AS LOW BOMBS OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE TUE-WED...STRONG NLY SWELL TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO ALL AREA WATERS BEGINNING EARLY THU. MODELS SUGGEST GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF MERGED FRONTS LATE TUE ACROSS NE PORTIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.