000 AGXX40 KNHC 211726 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 126 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GEFS-ECENS CONSENSUS A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N91W TO 18N93W PRODUCING BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN WIND FLOW AROUND THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA SSW TO THE N HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARE N OF 24N AND SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS...WHILE MODERATE E TO NE FLOW PREVAILS S OF 24N WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT. RIDGE TO SHIFT E AND INTO W ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF BASIN BY TONIGHT BEFORE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS RELATIVELY SLOWLY SSE INTO N COASTAL WATERS SUN THEN STALLS ALONG ABOUT 27N BY MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH EARLY TUE. MODELS DIVERGE BY TUE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF E COAST LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN EWD SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE W OF GFS...AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HUGGING TIGHTER TO COAST THAN GFS. REJUVENATED FRONT EXPECTED FROM FL BIG BEND TO NEAR TUXPAN BY TUE 12Z. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB S OF 16N...WITH A FEW 30 KT VECTORS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIAN COAST. RIDGING ACROSS ATLC AND GULF MEX SEPARATED BY WEAKNESS ACROSS SW N ATLC ALONG ABOUT 75W...AND DIRECTLY N OF COLOMBIA. MODELS SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SAT BEFORE NW PORTIONS BEGIN TO VEER SE IN ADVANCE OF FRONT APPROACHING GULF OF MEX. TRADES TO WEAKEN LATE MON THROUGH MID WEEK AS E COAST LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND FRONT PUSHES INTO NW CARIB WED...WITH NELY WINDS 20-25 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT AND ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT ...HIGHEST SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATE TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE MODESTLY LATE MON-TUE AS LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF E COAST OF U.S. AND PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. ECMWF SOLUTION OF THIS E COAST STORM IS PREFERRED ATTM AND INITIALLY WILL YIELD LARGE SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS STATIONARY BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM NE TO SW AND THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA...WITH ATLC RIDGE TO THE E AND WEAKER RIDGING EXTENDING SSE INTO N HALF OF GULF OF MEX. N TO NE LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING THROUGH REGIONAL WATERS TODAY WITH STRONGEST ENERGY APPEARED TO BE AIMED AT BAHAMAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TODAY WITH RIDGE ACROSS GULF OF MEX SHIFTING E INTO ATLC TONIGHT AND SNAKING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING E AHEAD OF RIDGE. THIS WILL SET UP RETURN FLOW LATE TONIGHT W OF 76W BEFORE WEAK RIDGE COLLAPSES SUN AND REMAINING WEAK RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED ALONG ABOUT 24N BY SUN. COLD FRONT TO SINK S INTO NW PORTIONS EARLY MON WITH FRESH N TO NE FLOW BEHIND IT...AND WILL PUSH FRONT FROM 30N65W TO S CENTRAL FL BY 00Z TUE BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT N AS WARM FRONT TUE-WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.