000 AGXX40 KNHC 210834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 434 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GEFS-ECENS CONSENSUS OLD FRONTAL ZONE NOW EXTENDS ACROSS NW PART OF CUBA AND IS BECOMING DIFFUSE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ARCHING W THEN SW ACROSS WATERS JUST OFFSHORE OF N COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING STILL EVIDENT IN WIND FLOW AROUND THE YUCATAN AND INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CAROLINAS SSW INTO N HALF OF BASIN...WITH WEAK 1021 MB HIGH SUGGESTED BY OBS ACROSS E CENTRAL PORTIONS AND WELL OFFSHORE OF MOUTH OF MS RIVER. THIS YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 24N WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS...WHILE MODERATE E TO NE FLOW PREVAILS S OF 24N WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT. RIDGE TO SHIFT E AND INTO W ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF BASIN BY TONIGHT BEFORE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS RELATIVELY SLOWLY SSE INTO N COASTAL WATERS SUN THEN STALLS ALONG ABOUT 27N BY MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH EARLY TUE. MODELS DIVERGE BY TUE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF E COAST LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN EWD SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE W OF GFS...AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HUGGING TIGHTER TO COAST THAN GFS. THIS ALSO REFLECTED IN REJUVENATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS GULF TUE-WED...WITH MODEST DIFFERENCES IN INITIAL POSITION TUE. REJUVENATED FRONT EXPECTED FROM FL BIG BEND TO NEAR TUXPAN BY TUE 12Z...WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE SE PROVIDING BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE AND WEATHER...THEN FRONT TO PUSH SE AND ALIGN MORE E TO W ALONG ABOUT 21N BY 12Z WED. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT TO FORCE STRONG N TO NE FLOW BY LATE TUE GRADUALLY VEERING ELY BY WED EVENING...WITH WINDS 20-25 KT AND SMALL POCKETS TO 30 KT SUGGESTED BY MODELS. GFS FORECASTING STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS GENERALLY CONCENTRATED E OF 90W THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHILE ECMWF FOCUSES W OF 90W. HAVE THUS TRIED TO COMPROMIZE WITH SWH AND BLEND BOTH WAVE MODELS...WITH PEAK SEAS WED EVENING TO 9 FT BY WW3 AND 11 FT BY ECWAVE. WW3 TENDS TO UNDERESTIMATE IN THESE SCENARIOS SO 10-11 FT FCST BY ECWAVE LOOKS GOOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS 01-02Z SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB S OF 16N...WITH A FEW 30 KT VECTORS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIAN COAST. RIDGING ACROSS ATLC AND GULF MEX SEPARATED BY WEAKNESS ACROSS SW N ATLC ALONG ABOUT 75W...AND DIRECTLY N OF COLOMBIA. MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING GALES OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...BUT GFS HAS SINCE BACKED DOWN TO AROUND 30 KT THERE...AND GEFS SHOWING NO GALE PROBS THERE WITH MOST RECENT RUN. NOCTURNAL MAX MAY PEAK AT OR JUST BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT AND WILL LEFT GALE WARNING CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SAT BEFORE NW PORTIONS BEGIN TO VEER SE IN ADVANCE OF FRONT APPROACHING GULF OF MEX. TRADES TO WEAKEN LATE MON THROUGH MID WEEK AS E COAST LOW BOMBS AND FRONT PUSHES INTO NW CARIB WED...WITH NELY WINDS 20-25 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT AND ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT ...HIGHEST SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATE TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE MODESTLY LATE MON-TUE AS LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF E COAST OF U.S. AND PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. ECMWF SOLUTION OF THIS E COAST BOMB IS PREFERRED ATTM AND INITIALLY WILL YIELD LARGE SWELL WITH MORE WWD COMPONENT BEFORE ASSOCIATED FRONT SHIFTS WELL OFFSHORE AND INTO CENTRAL ATLC WED-THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS STATIONARY BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM NE TO SW AND THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ATLC RIDGE TO THE E AND WEAKER RIDGING EXTENDING SSE INTO N HALF OF GULF OF MEX. N TO NE LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING THROUGH REGIONAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH STRONGEST ENERGY APPEARED TO BE AIMED AT BAHAMAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TODAY WITH RIDGE ACROSS GULF OF MEX SHIFTING E INTO ATLC TONIGHT AND SNAKING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING E AHEAD OF RIDGE. THIS WILL SET UP RETURN FLOW LATE TONIGHT W OF 76W BEFORE WEAK RIDGE COLLAPSES SUN AND REMAINING WEAK RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED ALONG ABOUT 24N BY SUN. COLD FRONT TO SINK S INTO NW PORTIONS EARLY MON WITH FRESH N TO NE FLOW BEHIND IT...AND WILL PUSH FRONT FROM 30N65W TO S CENTRAL FL BY 00Z TUE BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT N AS WARM FRONT TUE-WED. E COAST BOMB THEM BECOMES PRIMARLY FOCUS OF FORECAST LATE TUE THROUGH THU ASA FRONT MOVES SE INTO NW PORTIONS TUE EVENING...THEN BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY WED AFTERNOON THEN 24N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA THU AFTERNOON. LARGE SWELL WILL BE GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM...AND AGAIN ECMWF IS PREFERRED ATTM...REMAINING NEAR E COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT AND PRODUCING A NWLY SWELL INITIALLY WED. FRONTAL ZONE AND/OR SHEAR LINE FORECAST BY MODELS TO LINGER NE TO SW ACROSS AREA THROUGH LATE FRI AND INTO WINDWARS PASSAGE AREA. PEAK SEAS TO 10 FT TUE EVENING WILL BUILD IN NW SWELL TO 10-16 FT N PORTIONS BY THU AND POROPAGATE SE. PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT WILL CREATE A REASONABLY BROAD ZONE OF STRONG WINDS AND COMBINE WITH NW SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS 10-15 FT BY EARLY FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.