000 AGXX40 KNHC 190738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 338 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1018 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THE 0320 ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THIS WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES MOVING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES TODAY AND THU PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS. THIS SECOND HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRI ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS BY SAT. A WEAK HIGH PRES CELL WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE NE GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA SAT AND SUN. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 4-6 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 10-15 KT NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W TODAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE E AND SE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY ON THU. THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING AS WELL AS LATE THU NIGHT AND PROBABLY FRI MORNING. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR ZONE AMZO31. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHEST WINDS...IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE...OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 13-14 FT IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 25-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PARTICULARLY N OF 27N. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM 29N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA THIS EVENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION GRADUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE THROUGH THU MORNING. NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE N WATERS TODAY WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT BY LATER TODAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM W TO E ON THU. A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE N PORTION OF THE REGION THU. STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF AREA ALONG 33N WILL STRENGTHEN TRADES ACROSS THE REGION FRI AND SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE SW N ATLC BY SAT WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.