000 AGXX40 KNHC 180800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO THE GULF WATERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A 1003 MB LOW PRES LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION WITH LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT BASED OF AN ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOYS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE SW GULF PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL WITH BUOY 42055 REPORTING SEA HEIGHTS OF 9 FT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE E THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. A WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY TAKING CONTROL OF THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS (LIGHTEST NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN) INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH WED AND THU AS THE WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES MOVING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. THIS SECOND HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CLIP THE N WATERS BY WED. THIS SECOND HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRI ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT N OF 20N...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD TODAY REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS THIS EVENING THEN WILL STALL AND DRIFT W ON WED BEFORE DISSIPATING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 30 KT OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL INCREASE WED THROUGH SAT AS ATLC HIGH PRES N OF AREA STRENGTHENS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...PARTICULARLY WED NIGHT INTO THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 1003 MB LOW PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER N FLORIDA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS THIS MORNING EXITING THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING REACHING FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA THIS EVENING. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N...LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE N OF 30N. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 30N FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. A MINORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME. BUT THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE WARNING FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 25 PERCENT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES. SO...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING BETWEEN 12-18 UTC FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ113. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA WED MORNING BUT THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. THEN...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 27N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING AND WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SE FORECAST WATERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE N WATERS BY THU. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PRODUCING MAINLY A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.