000 AGXX40 KNHC 170741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 341 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS BASED ON THE 0308 UTC ASCAT PASS. AT 17/0600 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO NEAR 9 FT PER AN ALTIMETER PASS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING...MOVING E THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AFFECTING ZONES GMZ017...GMZ019...GMZ023 AND GMZ025. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 12-13 FT IN THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON TUE TAKING CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS (LIGHTEST NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN) INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH WED AND THU AS THE WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES MOVING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRI ALLOWING FOR GENTLE RETURN FLOW IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE RETURN FLOW ELSEWHERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE CARIBBEAN...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW AND ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE AREA IS TIGHT. SE RETURN FLOW HAS INCREASED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING. BUOY 42056 LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS REPORTING SE WINDS OF 23-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SPREADING EWD TO NEAR 83W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE E GULF OF HONDURAS TUE EVENING THEN STALL AND DRIFT NW ON WED. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL INCREASE WED THROUGH FRI AS ATLC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND A DISSIPATING ATLC COLD FRONT PROPAGATING SE THROUGH TODAY. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 6 FT...BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE TUE THROUGH THU...AND TO 8 FT IN NE TO E SWELL IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION BY FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 29N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE HAS INCREASED TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 70W THIS MORNING...THEN WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N. A LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON REACHING A POSITION NEAR 29N82W AT 1004 MB THIS EVENING...THEN NEAR 31N77W AT 1002 MB TUE MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 30N WHILE A MINORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT...THOUGH THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA TUE EVENING...THEN WILL STALL FROM 27N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED EVENING...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THU. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12-14 FT IN NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE N WATERS BY WED. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE NW PART OF THE AREA BY THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.