000 AGXX40 KNHC 161826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 226 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS. CONVECTION HAS EXPLODED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N96W. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF HAS INCREASED TO FRESH TO STRONG AS INDICATED BY A 1554Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS HAVE ALSO INCREASED IN THIS AREA UP TO 5-8 FT NOW. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON EVENING...MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE 09Z SREF MODEL (LATEST AVAILABLE) INDICATES 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES UP TO 90-100 PERCENT IN THE SW GULF...AND UP TO 20-30 PERCENT NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ZONES GMZ017-019-023...AND 025 TONIGHT INTO MON. THE 06Z GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES INDICATED 70-80 PERCENT IN GMZ023-025 AND 10 PERCENT NEAR THE SAME INTERSECTION POINT ABOVE...HOWEVER THE 12Z GEFS HAS BACKED OFF AND NOW ONLY SHOWS UP TO 30 PERCENT FOR GMZ023 ONLY AT 12Z MON. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE 4 ZONES STARTING AT 00Z MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 14-16 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS AS PROVIDED BY THE LATEST TAFB NWPS RUN (COMPARED TO ONLY 10-12 FT WITH THE MWW3). WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY 00Z TUE AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON TUE TAKING CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS (LIGHTEST NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN) INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH WED AND THU AS THE WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES MOVING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRI ALLOWING FOR GENTLE RETURN FLOW IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE RETURN FLOW ELSEWHERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE CARIBBEAN...20-30 KT WINDS AS MEASURED BY A 1418Z ASCAT PASS AND 8-10 FT SEAS ARE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW AND ATLC RIDGING N-NE OF THE AREA IS TIGHT. SE RETURN FLOW IS INCREASING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS ARE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AS MEASURED BY A 1556Z ASCAT PASS WITH ACCOMPANYING SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. MEANWHILE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS ON TUE. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NW ON WED. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT... EXPANDING ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 64W AND 80W WED THROUGH FRI AS ATLC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND ATLC COLD FRONT PROPAGATING SE THROUGH EARLY MON. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FT TODAY (HIGHEST NORTHERN PART)...4-7 FT MON NIGHT THROUGH THU... BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION FRI IN NE-E SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N61W TO THE NE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS IS ALMOST COMPLETELY GONE AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS S OF 27N. N OF 27N...RETURN FLOW IS INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS W OF 77W AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM (SEAS 2-4 FT CURRENTLY E OF 77W). THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND E TO 70W N OF 27N TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW PART OF THE AREA MON WITH ACCOMPANYING LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA MON AFTERNOON REACHING A POSITION NEAR 31N79W AT 1006 MB MON EVENING...THEN NEAR 31N75W AT 1006 MB TUE MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA TUE NIGHT...THEN WILL STALL FROM 27N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED NIGHT... GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THU. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED AS THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THE MENTIONED LOW. GENTLE TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS WILL COVER THE BASIN WED WITH 3-6 FT SEAS S OF 27N AND N OF 27N W OF 77W...AND 7-11 FT SEAS N OF 27N E OF 77W ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THU WITH 4-7 FT SEAS DOMINATING THE BASIN (1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS). HIGH PRES N OF 31N SLIDES EASTWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND SUPPORTING E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS BASINWIDE...ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS S OF 27N AND 2-4 FT SEAS N OF 27N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING MON. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.