000 AGXX40 KNHC 160758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON EVENING...AND MOVE E THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON TUE. THE SREF INDICATES 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE UP TO 30 PERCENT IN THE W CENTRAL GULF/GMZ017 ZONE AND 70 PERCENT IN THE SW GULF/GMZ023 ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE NOW 70 PERCENT IN GMZ023. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPILL INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF/GMZ019 ZONE AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE/GMZ025 ZONE DURING THE DAY MON. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY 00 UTC TUE AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA AND WEAKENS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON TUE TAKING CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS (LIGHTEST NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN) INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH WED AND THU AS THE WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES MOVING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE BASIN. THE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE BASIN AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAM LOW WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS...BRIEFLY REACHING 30 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS OF 8-9 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA. SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACCORDING TO AN ASCAT PASS... BUOY 42056...AN A SHIP CALL SIGN PBIG. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO MON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE GFS MODEL CONTINUING TO SUGGEST 30 KT MAX WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AS SE FLOW SPREADS E TO NEAR 80W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON EVENING...THEN WILL STALL AND WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS ON TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NW ON WED AND THU. MEANWHILE TRADES WILL INCREASE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO TUE AS ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS...SPREADING TO THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED INTO THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND ATLC COLD FRONT PROPAGATING SE THROUGH EARLY MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT TODAY. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE SE WATERS EXTENDING FROM 21N65W TO NEAR THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. NW SWELL UP TO 11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS LATER TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE E AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS... EXPANDING E TO 70W N OF 27N SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW PART OF THE AREA MON EVENING. LOW PRES ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA MON AFTERNOON REACHING A POSITION NEAR 31N80W MON NIGHT...THEN MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA TUE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA TUE NIGHT...THEN STALL FROM 27N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY FRI. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS ZONE AMZ111 THROUGH LATE TUE WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS REMAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS THROUGH LATE WED. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 11-12 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELLS BEHIND THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING MON. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.