000 AGXX40 KNHC 151800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND. MODERATE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF UNDER THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN EVENING AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN MON EVENING...MOVING E OF THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE SREF INDICATES 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE UP TO 47 PERCENT IN THE W CENTRAL GULF/GMZ017 ZONE AND 65 PERCENT IN THE SW GULF/GMZ023 ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE 70 PERCENT IN GMZ017 AND 20 PERCENT IN GMZ023. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPILL INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF/GMZ019 ZONE AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE/GMZ025 ZONE DURING THE DAY MON. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY 00 UTC TUE AS THE FRONT EXITS AND WEAKENS. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TUE THROUGH THU WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS (LIGHTEST NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN) INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH WED AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE BASIN. THE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE BASIN AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAM LOW WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS...BRIEFLY REACHING 30 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BE 8-11 FT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS LATE SUN INTO MON IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE GFS MODEL CONTINUING TO SUGGEST 30 KT MAX WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AS SE FLOW SPREADS E TO NEAR 80W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON EVENING... THEN WILL STALL AND WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS ON TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NW ON WED AND THU. MEANWHILE TRADES WILL INCREASE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO TUE AS ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS... SPREADING TO THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED INTO THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND ATLC COLD FRONT REACHING N PORTIONS LATER TODAY AND PROPAGATING SE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE SE WATERS EXTENDING FROM 21N65W TO NEAR THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 180 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. NW SWELL UP TO 12-13 FT BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1026 MB HIGH PRES JUST N OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N64W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE E AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT ON SUN...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS...EXPANDING E TO 70W N OF 27N SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE AREA MON EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE MON INTO TUE. LOW PRES ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA MON AFTERNOON MOVING ALONG 31N MON NIGHT...THEN TO THE NE AWAY FROM 31N TUE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW THROUGH 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED MORNING...STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS REMAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING MON. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.