000 AGXX40 KNHC 150755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 355 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE...ANCHORED BY A HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC... DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT INTO SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN EVENING AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN MON EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY BE E OF AREA MON NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50-60 PERCENT ACROSS ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZ023 WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME. THE 0000 UTC RUN OF THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS A LARGE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED WITH THE 0000 UTC FORECAST PACKAGE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 13-15 FT IN THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E ACROSS THE GULF REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES E OF AREA AND HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE BASIN AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAM LOW WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10-11 FT THERE. EXPECT INCREASING SE WINDS TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTING 30 KT MAX IN GULF OF HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AS SE FLOW SPREADS E TO ALMOST 80W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON EVENING...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS ON TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NW OF WED. MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WITH NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND ATLC COLD FRONT REACHING N PORTIONS LATER TODAY AND PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-7 FT ON SUN. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THEN ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED AND HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE SE WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM 22N65W TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT...PARTICULARLY S OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS BUILDING SEAS TO 10-11 FT BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N68W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT ON SUN...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS... EXPANDING E TO 70W N OF 27N SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE MON INTO TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.