000 AGXX40 KNHC 141910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E COAST INTO CENTRAL BASIN ATTM WITH RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING E TO ENE WINDS 20+ KT THROUGH STRAITS AND ACROSS SE PORTIONS...AND SE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. EARLY MORNING ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS STILL AROUND 8 FT N OF YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PERSISTENT 20 KT WIND THROUGH STRAITS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS 6-8 FT ACROSS SE PORTIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. E COAST HIGH TO SHIFT E NEXT 24 HRS AND ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN BY SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW FCST TO MOVE INTO MID MS VALLEY SUN MORNING. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT E OF 90W BY SUN MORNING AND VERY GUSTY COASTAL WATERS AS THIS HEALTHY LOW MOVES E ACROSS SE U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS LATE SUN MORNING...WITH MODERATE GALES TO 40 KT EXPECTED TO BLAST SSE AND AFFECT MUCH OF W AND SW PORTIONS THROUGH SUN EVENING AND PERSIST ACROSS ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH 12Z MON. WAVE MODELS NOT GENERATING SEAS QUICKLY ENOUGH AND WE HAVE CREATED WAVE FIELDS USING MULTI MODEL BLEND AND MANUAL TECHNIQUES. SEAS LIKELY TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 18 FT ACROSS SW PORTIONS BY EARLY MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 19N88W...WITH ENE FLOW 20-25 KT N OF BOUNDARY PER RECENT ASCAT PASS...AND BUOY 42056 HAVING DROPPED FROM 9 FT AT 12Z TO 7 FT CURRENTLY. FRONT TO REMAIN ANCHORED NW PORTIONS AND LAY DOWN MORE E TO W THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGES NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH PRES GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH SHIFTS E...AND WIND AND SEAS GRADUALLY ABATING NW OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL. SHIFTING W ATLC HIGH WILL INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING AND BRING A RETURN TO STRONG TRADES S CENTRAL PORTIONS...WITH COLOMBIA NOCTURNAL MAX REACHING NEAR 30 KT AND 10 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. TRADES TO VEER SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS SUN AS FRONT APPROACHED GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GFS SUGGESTING 30 KT MAX IN GULF OF HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AS SE FLOW SPREADS E TO ALMOST 80W. MODERATE TRADES TO PERSIST ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WITH NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND ATLC COLD FRONT TO REACH N PORTIONS LATE SAT AND PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SUN. SEAS 3-4 FT CURRENTLY N PART AND 4-5 S...WILL BUILD 6-7 FT ON SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N65W TO SE COAST OF CUBA AND SINKING INTO WINDWARD PASSAGE. N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT DEPICTED BY RECENT SCAT PASSES BEHIND FRONT TO 75W...WITH SEAS TO 16 FT ALONG 31N. FRONT TO SETTLE ALONG 20-21N NEXT 48 HOURS THEN WEAKEN TO MINIMAL SHEARLINE...WITH WIND AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SUN-MON. E SHIFTING ATLC RIDGE TO EXTEND W INTO FLORIDA THROUGH SUN WITH SLY FLOW INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF GULF FRONT ON SUN...WITH S WINDS 25 KT NW PORTIONS...AND EXPANDING E TO 70W N OF 27N SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. WINDS TO VEER MON TO SW AS FRONT APPROACHES E COAST OF U.S...WITH GALES POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON AND INTO TUE AS FRONT SHIFTS E OFF OF COAST AND INTO NW PORTIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.