000 AGXX40 KNHC 141338 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 352 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N88W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN INTO EASTERN MEXICO PRODUCING NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES... MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE NE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLC IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF TODAY...AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EARLY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS SUN MORNING. THE FRONT...FORECAST TO BE A STRONG ONE...IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE E OF AREA LATE MON. CURRENTLY... THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 20-30 PERCENT WHILE A MINORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST. CONSIDERING THAT THE 0000 UTC RUN OF THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS A LARGE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON...A GALE WARNING MAY BE ISSUED IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE 0230 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE REACHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. AS THE FRONT REACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...EXPECT INCREASING NE WINDS IN LEE OF CUBA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...RETURNING TO 25 KT AND 9 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT AND THEN TO 30 KT AND 10 FT SEAS THROUGH WEEKEND. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO EASTERN CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY N OF 27N. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM 24N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY...THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REACH SE WATERS AND NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS SAT AND PEAK SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OFF THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND PASS TO THE N OF BERMUDA ON SAT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON SUN SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE N WATERS ON MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE MON. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE MON INTO TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.