000 AGXX40 KNHC 131827 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 227 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH FL KEYS AND ACROSS STRAITS AND NOW ALONG NW COAST OF CUBA TO E CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WILL MOVE SE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CUBA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI THROUGH SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING. RECENT SCAT PASSES AND OBS INDICATE NNE WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT E OF 90W AND NE 15-20 W OF 90W. MORNING ALTIMETER DATA AND BUOY OBS SUGGESTED WW3 WELL UNDERDONE ACROSS ERN GULF WHERE SEAS WERE UP TO 10-12 FT...WHILE 1315Z ALTIMETER SHOWED 8-10 FT IN N SWELL SW PORTIONS...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LOW TREND THROUGH 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT...AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE FRI NIGHT. A SECOND WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE SUN...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SE GULF ON MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W TO GULF OF HONDURAS AND WILL SINK SLOWLY SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT ACROSS EXTREME SE GULF OF MEXICO. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG FRONTAL TROUGH ATTM...AND WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH BAHAMAS. MERGED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REACH FROM E CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 19N...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING S TO INTO GULF OF HONDURAS BY FRI MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CARIB THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ACTIVE TSTMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE FRESH N WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...RETURNING TO 25 KT AND 9 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT AND THEN TO 30 KT AND 10 FT SEAS THROUGH WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR 20 KT N OF FRONT NEXT 24 HRS...MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ALONG NW COAST OF CUBA...WITH OLD FRONTAL TROUGH ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SE WITH ACTIVE TSTMS OCCURRING ALONG IT. DROPPED GALE BEHIND FRONT...WHILE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST GALES WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN NARROW BAND AHEAD OF FRONT...AND ISSUED GALE N OF 30N THROUGH 00Z. 50-50 BLEND OF ECWAVE AND WW3 VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL WITH SWELL BEHIND FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW CUBA THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE FRONTAL TROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MERGED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 25N65W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N77W FRI MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS SE WATERS ALONG 21N-22N THROUGH SAT. NW SWELL TO REACH SE WATERS AND NE CARIB ISLANDS SAT AND PEAK SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT WILL SHIFT E OFF THE CAROLINAS ON FRI...PASSING NEAR BERMUDA ON SAT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE SUN ALLOWING A SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE SUN NIGHT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA AROUND SUNRISE TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.