000 AGXX40 KNHC 121858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST IN SHORT RANGE. GFS AND ECMWF/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST IN LONG RANGE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MODERATE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. TWO OIL PLATFORMS OFF THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST...KBQZ AND KBBF...REPORTED SUSTAINED GALES PEAKING AT 34 AND 37 KT RESPECTIVELY...THOUGH THEIR ANEMOMETERS ARE UP AT 25 AND 28 M. KEPT 10 M WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT DID INDICATE GALE WARNING BASED UPON FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS ARE ALREADY BACKING OFF FROM THEIR PEAK BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z THIS MORNING...SO GALE WARNING IN OUR NW GULF ZONE 11 MAY BE DROPPED LATER. AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF...THE WINDS WILL BE ACCENTUATED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST DUE TO TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. A GALE IS INDICATE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF ZONES BEGINNING AT 00Z TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO QUICKLY DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BEFORE DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. BY EARLY FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF BEGINS. A SECOND FRONT REACHES THE NW GULF EARLY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THE FORCING FOR IT APPEARS WEAKER AND GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL WAS SLOW AND WEAK ON THE ENTRANCE OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF AND REMAINED WEAK IN COMPARISON TO THE 12Z GFS. THUS ECMWF NOT UTILIZED FOR FIRST 36 HOURS. LOCALLY RUN NWPS WAVE MODEL APPEARED TO BE WAY LOW IN GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAST-MOVING FRONTAL FORCING AND WAS NOT USED. AN INTERESTING PHENOMENON WAS SEEN AT DAWN ALONG THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER AS THE FRONT WAS APPROACHING. AN UNDULAR BORE INITIATED BY THE COLD AIR DOME PROPAGATED ALONG THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE AREA AND COULD BE OBSERVED BY THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. AT LEAST 20 INDIVIDUAL WAVE CRESTS COULD BE SEEN WITH THE BEAUTIFUL...BUT RELATIVELY HARMLESS...EVENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST IN SHORT RANGE. GFS AND ECMWF/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST IN LONG RANGE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY IN THE CARIBBEAN AS EVEN THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL WINDS ONLY PEAKED AT A FRESH BREEZE WITH THE SYNOPTIC- SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING WEAK. THE GULF COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR HIGH SEAS STRONG BREEZE CRITERION. SOME MODERATE N SWELL WILL REACH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 8 FT. THE PASSING FRONT WILL INCREASE THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WIND MAX NEAR COLOMBIA WILL REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY ONWARD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST IN SHORT RANGE. GFS AND ECMWF/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST IN LONG RANGE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE N OF THE BAHAMAS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST ON TONIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A GALE BEHIND THE FRONT BRIEFLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD...EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE THU...AND STALL AND WEAKEN FROM 23N65W TO E CUBA ON FRI. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT AND SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE WARNING TODAY BASED ON FREQUENT GUSTS. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.