000
AGXX40 KNHC 111752
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
152 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF ANCHORED BY A 1017 HIGH
PRES LOCATED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRES SITUATED NEAR 28N94W TO NEAR TUXPAN
MEXICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LOW PRES WILL SHIFT NE AND INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...AND DRAG
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. A STRONGER AND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WED
MORNING AND MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE AREA...AND GRADUALLY MERGE
WITH PRECEDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE GULF THU. STRONG TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF AREA THU NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE 30 PERCENT ACROSS ZONE GMZ017...AND NEAR 50
PERCENT ACROSS ZONE GMZ023...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE GALE PROBABILITY
IS NOW 30 PERCENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
THOSE ZONES WED EVENING AND WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NW
GULF WED MORNING. HIGH PRES AND MODERATE RETURN FLOW TO PREVAIL
FRI AND SAT BEFORE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE AND OVER NW
PORTIONS SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF NE
WINDS 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...PARTICULARLY FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A WEAK HIGH PRES
LOCATED N OF THE AREA WILL MOVE E AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THU. A STRONG COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WED...WILL REACH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN EARLY ON THU...EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU. FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM EASTERN
CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY FRI...WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE LATE SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. MODERATE NW SWELL
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND E CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN FADE ON WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A 1017 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 27N74W DOMINATES THE REGION
PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN 22N AND 27N.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ARE SEEN N OF 27N PER SURFACE
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA WHILE NE TO E WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE
ARE BLOWING S OF 22N. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT E OF THE
BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE WEAK HIGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EWD WED THROUGH THU AS STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW
PORTION OF THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO WESTERN CUBA THU
AND FROM NEAR 26N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA FRI BEFORE STALLING THROUGH
SAT. EXPECT INCREASING SW FLOW ACROSS N WATERS AHEAD OF FRONT WED
AND STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT
INTO THU ACROSS ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ113. ALMOST HALF OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME. A GALE
WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE ZONES IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE WARNING WED NIGHT.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...GALE WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU. 
AMZ113...GALE WARNING THU. 
AMZ115...NONE. 
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE. 
AMZ121...NONE. 
AMZ123...NONE. 
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.