000
AGXX40 KNHC 101757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
157 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 28N88W. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE
NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE E AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NE CORNER JUST E OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CENTER. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 24N94W TO 19N93W.
THE 1534 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS S OF
25N W OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 28N93W ON TUE WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM LOW CENTER TO NEAR 19N95W. THE LOW PRES WILL SHIFT NE INTO
THE SE CONUS WHILE THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF BY WED. A STRONGER AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF ON WED AND MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW. CURRENTLY...THE SREF
PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF...ZONE GMZ017...AND TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SW GULF...ZONE GMZ023...BUT THE ENSEMBLE GALE
PROBABILITY IS STILL ZERO...THOUGH WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE STILL
FORECAST WAITING FOR THE NEW RUN OF THE MODELS. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE SE OF AREA LATE WED NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF NE WINDS
20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WIND OF 20 KT IN LEE OF
EASTERN CUBA WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUILDING TO
6-8 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EACH NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF AREA. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. MODERATE NW SWELL CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND THROUGH E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TUE THEN FADE ON WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS JUST N
OF PUERTO RICO WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS
GENERATED BY THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM W TO E
THROUGH TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NE WED THROUGH THU AS STRONG COLD FRONT
ENTERS NW PORTIONS REACHING FROM 31N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
THU MORNING AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA LATE THU. EXPECT
INCREASING SW FLOW ACROSS N WATERS AHEAD OF FRONT WED AND STRONG
TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THU. A MINORITY OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU EVENING N OF 29N AND WEST OF FRONT. CURRENTLY...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU
ACROSS ZONE AMZ111.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. 
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.