000
AGXX40 KNHC 091815
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE/MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WED AND THU.

A 1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL GULF PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT ACROSS THE E GULF AND
3-4 FT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E TOWARD
THENW BAHAMAS MON AND WEAKEN. A NEW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO
THE NW GULF AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N93W TO 24N98W. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT PER SURFACE DATA
AND THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT
BASED ON BUOY 42020 LOCATED IN THE NW PART OF THE GULF. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LOW PRES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 25N95W ON MON. IN FACT...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS THAT A LOW PRES IS ALREADY
TAKING SHAPE NEAR 25N96W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NNE TOWARD SE
LOUISIANA THROUGH TUE...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE
WED MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. A STRONGER AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF REGION BY WED AND MOVE QUICKLY SE
ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW. WINDS MAY
REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF LATE WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT FUNNELING
ACROSS THE GULF OF VENEZUELA INTO LAKE MARACAIBO. THE 1416 UTC
ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NE-E WINDS 20-25 KT NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU.
MAINLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND MON.
MODERATE NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND THROUGH
E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO AROUND 7 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE NW TO N SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE N WATERS PARTICULARLY
THE NE PART OF THE AREA WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF 12-13 FT THERE. THIS
SWELL EVENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
23N65W TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE LARGE NW TO N SWELL GENERATED BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MON BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM W TO E MON THROUGH TUE. EXPECT INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE N WATERS BY WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER WED NIGHT INTO THU.
THIS SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 31N67W TO
CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE THU WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.