000
AGXX40 KNHC 081851
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
151 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. THE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WITH A LOW PRES LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
25N95W ON MON. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF FRONT ACROSS ZONE
GMZ017 SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT. THE
LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD SE LOUISIANA ON TUE WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THEN...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED WHILE
DISSIPATING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ON WED FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW
FLOW.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. NE WINDS OF 15
KT ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS PER AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
LATE SUN AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. MAINLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AND A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
NE TO E WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 31N66W TO EASTERN CUBA. THE 1432 UTC
ASCAT SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT MAINLY
N OF 29N BETWEEN 61W AND 67W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CAN BE FOUND
ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY N OF 25N. AN ALTIMETER
PASS PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 13 FT BEHIND THE
FRONT WHILE BUOY 41047 LOCATED ALSO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS
REPORTING 10-12 FT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE E
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PART IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SE WATERS ON SUN AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE ON MON. AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH
TUE. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE N WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 14-16 FT ACROSS THE NE WATERS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.