000 AGXX40 KNHC 071949 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 249 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS EXITED THE AREA...AND IS SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS MAINTAINING NW 20-25 KT WINDS THERE WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE LOWER...NW 15-20 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF...AND CENTRAL GULF AS WELL AND NE-E 10 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF EXCEPT FOR E-SE 5-10 KT WINDS W OF 93W. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-4 FT IN THE FAR NE...NW PORTIONS AND IN THE SW GULF. HIGH PRES WILL KEEP CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. HOWEVER...UPPER STRONG SW WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO CONDUCIVE FOR THE FRONT TO PROGRESS TOO FAST. IT SHOULD REACH NEAR 95W MON...NEAR 93W/92W BY LATE TUE BEFORE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN WATERS TUE AND WED. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ON WED FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PREVIOUS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND IS SLOWING DOWN. NW WINDS BEHIND IT ARE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AS WERE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 1546 UTC ASCAT PASS. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE 3-5 FT WINDS TO THE E OF THE FRONT ARE E-SE 5-10 KT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SECTION...AND E-SE 15 KT ELSEWHERE ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA WHERE THE 1404 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MOSTLY E WINDS OF 20 KT WITH NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 5-7 FT SEAS IN NE SWELLS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR 16N83W BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN FURTHER TO A TROUGH AS IT REACHES FROM HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 16N80W BY EARLY SUN. THE 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH TO ABOUT 15-20 KT EARLY SAT AS THE PRES GRADEINT THERE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN ATLC COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD. ONCE THE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DIMINISH AND THE SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUBSIDE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE TO MODERATE AND SEAS ON THE LOW SIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH DAY 5. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 5. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TO WESTERN CUBA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS 50 NM E OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE E OF THESE FEATURES. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT BUOY REPORTS SHOW W-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N...AND SW 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 25N. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N...WITH 9-12 FT SEAS N OF 30N. SEAS E OF THE FRONT HAVE INCREASED TO 6-9 FT N OF 25N. THE ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH BUOY DATA AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS SHOW SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT...AND NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT W OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM NEAR 31N67W TO EASTERN CUBA BY DAYBREAK SAT. A GALE WARNING FOR WINDS 30-35 KT IS IN EFFECT FOR A SWATH OF THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND AND E OF THE FRONT ON SAT AFFECTING ZONES 113 AND 115. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO ENE ZONE 115 BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. LIFTS NE OPENING UP THE UPPER LEVELS TO BROAD HIGH PRES. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH WED. EXPECT THE 9-12 FT SEAS N OF 30N ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH SAT...WHILE BEING REPLACED A LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN WITH LARGER SEAS IN THE 10-16 FT RANGE ON SAT. THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO ZONE 115 BY LATE SUN...BUT WILL BE LOSING ITS WAVE ENERGY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9-10 FT AT THAT TIME. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...GALE WARNING N OF 29N E OF 73W SAT. AMZ115...GALE WARNING N OF 29N SAT. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.