000 AGXX40 KNHC 061951 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS TSTMS ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN GULF E OF ABOUT 85W...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW NOTED DIGGING ESE OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM S AND CENTRAL FLORIDA VIVIDLY SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE THE VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS FREQUENT STRIKES OCCURRING WITHIN THE CONVECTION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONSISTS OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA WSW TO A WEAK LOW 1009 MB AT 28N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO 24N86W TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING REACHING EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE S AT 20-25 KT...WHILE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NW-N 20 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE SW GULF...AND IN THE NW GULF. THE SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...THUS ADJUSTED WAVEHEIGHTS IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO OVER NE FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED TO JUST SE OF THE GULF...AND INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TO E OF FLORIDA. THE NW-N 20 KT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NE PART OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND MUCH OF THE NE GULF LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING FRI AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT...THEN WEAKEN SUN AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS THE FAR WESTERN GULF. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE A WEAKER PUSH OF NLY FLOW...ABOUT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5-8 FT...BEHIND IT AS IT SLOWS DOWN IN THE WESTERN SUN AND MON. WEAK LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF MON...AND MOVE ENE THROUGH TUE WITH THE FRONT NEAR 95W. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BEGINNING LATE FRI THROUGH TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: USED 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF. USED NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 1230 UTC ASCAT PASS HIGHLIGHTED A SWATH OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SIMILAR WINDS ARE NEAR THE COAST OF VENEZUELA W OF 65W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WEAK FRONT...SO THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...DIMINISHING THE STRONG BREEZE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SUN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF. USED 12 UTC MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 5. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N64W TO 29N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29.5N76W...AND WARM FRONT TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 30N80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW SW TO DAYTONA BEACH. A TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW TO INLAND NEAR VERO BEACH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 76W...MOVING QUICKLY ENE. THE LOW WILL TRACK NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES NE ALONG THE SE U.S. FRI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI EVENING...FROM NEAR 31N66W TO 25N70W THEN WEAKENING TO FAR EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY SAT AND CONTINUE OVER THE SE WATERS LATE SAT AND SUN WITH FRONTAL REMNANTS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS MON. A LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SWEEP SE FROM N OF 31N...AND CLIP THE FAR NE WATERS OF ZONE 113 BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT...AND MUCH OF THE THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF ZONE 115 BY EARLY SUN. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE NW BY LATE SAT. EXPECT LARGE SEAS IN NW SWELLS TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR NORTHER WATERS OF THESE ZONES BEGINNING FRI. BY SUN THESE SWELLS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE 115...AND TO E OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...AND LAST THROUGH DAY 5... KEEPING MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...GALE WARNING LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT N OF 30N E OF 74W. AMZ115...GALE WARNING SAT N OF 30N BETWEEN 69W AND 64W. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.