000
AGXX40 KNHC 060754
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
254 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF AND GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MWW3 AND EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT AND LOW CONFIDENCE SUN AND MON.

ASCAT PASSES AT 0250 UTC AND 0336 UTC SHOW NE WINDS TO 25 KT IN
THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER NEAR 26N92W. THE MODELS ARE
GENERALLY UNDERDONE HERE. THE 0000 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NE GULF TODAY...BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE
DETAILS. THE EC WAVE MODEL IS GENERALLY HIGHER WITH SEAS THAN THE
MWW3. DESPITE SIZABLE AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE
GFS...THE MWW3 NEVER ALLOWS SEAS TO REACH 8 FT IN THE GULF. THE
EC WAVE SEEMS MORE REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
KNOWING THE LOW BIAS IN THE MWW3 FOR RAMPING UP SEAS AS WELL AS
FOR SUBSIDING SWELL. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DIMINISHES AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF EARLY SUN. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE PUSH COLD NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE NE MEXICAN
COAST THAN THE GFS. A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS SEEMS LIKE A
REASONABLE COURSE OF ACTION THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
HAS EXPANDED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE RECENT
ASCAT PASSES...WITH THE CONDITIONS ALSO EXTENDING WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA W OF 65W. WINDS WILL CONTINUE BE A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE HERE THROUGH FRI AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WEAK FRONT...SO THE GFS
SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...DIMINISHING THE STRONG
BREEZE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SUN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND
5-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MWW3 AND EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS AGREE ON CARRYING LOW PRES FROM THE GULF ACROSS N
FLORIDA INTO THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW
PRES AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH FRI...WITH THE
GFS/MWW3 FASTER TO MOVE THE STRONGEST WINDS/SEAS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW N ATLC BY THE WEEKEND. THE 03Z SREF AND 06Z GEFS SHOW NO
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES...BUT BOTH MODELS
SHOW GALES ON SAT JUST TO THE E...WITH THE 06Z GEFS SHOWING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES AT 18Z. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING A
GALE IN THE HIGH SEAS AREA FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITIES. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LEANED HEAVILY ON THE GFS/MWW3. FEAR THE
USUAL BIAS OF THE MWW3 SUBSIDING SWELL TOO QUICKLY MAY BE
AMPLIFIED BY THE GFS BEING ON THE FAST SIDE DIMINISHING THE WINDS
ON THE W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. LEANED SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE EC
WAVE HERE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.