000
AGXX40 KNHC 051954
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
254 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN 
GFS-ECMWF BLEND

WARM FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NE GULF ALONG ABOUT 27N
WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING SE OF THIS BOUNDARY FIRING ON LLVL PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH. PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES FROM 15-16Z DEPICT NE TO ENE
FLOW AROUND 20 KT OCCURRING N OF WARM FRONT AND YIELDING SEAS 6-8
FT ACROSS W CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GULF. SFC LOW FORECAST BY MODELS
APPEARS TO BE JUST SE OF 24N95W WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING S TO
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE...BUT IS SUGGESTED
THERE BY MODELS AND RAP ANAL. COMPLEX SCENARIO TO SAY THE LEAST. MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTING SLOWLY NE NEXT
24 HOURS INTO N CENTRAL GULF...WITH WARM FRONT DRIFTING N AND NE
GULF AND TRAILING COLD FRONT DRAGGING SLIGHLTY SE. LATEST GFS
TAKES H85 VORTEX A BIT FASTER NE THAN EURO MODELS...WHICH ARE IN
MORE REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH GEFS MEAN...AND HAVE THUS NUDGED
SFC LOW POSITION TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION. S/W AND MID LEVEL VORTEX
MOVING ACROSS W TEXAS TO SHIFT INTO NW GULF BY 12Z THU SUPPORT CAA
INTO THE BASIN...SUPPORTING NEW SURGE OF NNW WINDS 20-25 KT AND
SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE THU MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY IN THE AS THE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES....AND
SHIFT NE INTO W ATLC COASTAL WATERS FRI WITH HIGH PRES BEHIND
FRONT PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WW3 DIMINISHES NW SWELL TOO
RAPIDLY AND WILL HAVE TO HEDGE MORE TOWARD EC WAVE MODEL TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SEAS 6-8 FT IN S CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS
LATE THU THROUGH LATE FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS 

SLOWLY WEAKENING W ATLC RIDGE WEAKENING GRADIENT ACROSS CARIB
BASIN WITH FRESH WINDS CONFINED TO S CENTRAL PORTIONS. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 
ACROSS THE GULF TO MERGE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THEY APPROACH YUCATAN
CHANNEL...WITH COLD FRONT ENTERING NW PORTIONS FRI MORNING AND
STALLING FROM GULF OF HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SAT MORNING.
UPPER SUPPORT TO LIFT OUT OF GULF MEX AND INTO W ATLC AND THUS
MODERATE NLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT. FURTHER WEAKENING
GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN TO LIMIT FRESH TRADES ALONG COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND
5-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3. 

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEGUN TO
DRIFT SE AS COLD FRONT AND DEPICTED BY 14-15Z ASCAT PASSES...WITH
NLY FLOW 20-30 KT JUST N OF AREA OFFSHORE OF GA AND SC COASTS.
MODEL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF LOW
LIFTING NE OUT OF GULF MEX LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH
MODEST DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION AT 48-72 HRS. STRONG CAA BEHIND
FRONT TO PRODUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALES TO NW OF LOW AND OFFSHORE OF
GA/SC AND WILL DRIVE SEAS 8 -10 FT N OF 29N ACROSS NW PORTIONS BY
EARLY FRI. FRONT TO CLEAR SE FL COAST BY 12Z FRI AND MOVE SE AND
INTO SE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY 12Z SAT. STRONG S-SW FLOW TO E
OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED N OF 25N FROM FL COASTAL WATERS TO 72W THEN
SHIFT E AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH SAT. POTENTIAL FOR NEAR GALES ALONG
31N BUT ATTM NOT FORECASTING MORE THAN 30 KT ACROSS N WATERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. ACTIVE CNVTN EXPECTED IN THIS STRONG SLY FLOW
E OF APPROACHING FRONT FRI AS S/W SWEEPS ACROSS N PORTIONS. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.