000 AGXX40 KNHC 050738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3 AND EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ASCAT PASSES AT 0312 UTC AND 0356 UTC SHOW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AND IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 25N93W. THE 0000 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NE GULF THROUGH THU. THEY ARE NEVER MORE THAN A MILLIBAR OR TWO APART...WITH THE ECMWF HEDGING STRONGER. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CONDITONS UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THEY PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO A NEW PUSH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE AS THE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES. THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY WANES SOMEWHAT FRI AND SAT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES E AND HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE AREA. THE LARGEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MADE TO THE WAVE FIELDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MWW3 BIAS OF SUBSIDING SWELL TOO RAPIDLY. THE EC WAVE MODEL WAS USED TO MAKE THESE ADJUSTMENTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THU AND THE ECMWF WAS ADDED FRI ONWARD. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RECENT ASCAT PASSES CONFIRM THAT WINDS REMAIN STRONGEST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE FOUND N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 14N. SHIP A8EG9 REPORTED A STRONG BREEZE NEAR 14N76W. WINDS WILL CONTINUE BE A STRONG BREEZE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH FRI AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY FRI. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER TO CARRY THIS FRONT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU/EARLY FRI THAN THE 0000 UTC GFS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...SO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SEEMS IN ORDER. THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...DIMINISHING THE STRONG BREEZE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3 AND EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A FRONT FROM 31N68W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THU. THE MODELS SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THESE FINE FEATURES. THE 0000 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE SW N ATLC LATE THU...WITH THE ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA. THE ECMWF IS ALSO SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES INLAND FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO SLIGHLTY BETTER AGREEMENT AS THIS LOW INTENSIFIES N OF THE AREA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS SHOWS UP TO A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE AT GALE FORCE SW WINDS OVER FAR N WATERS AS THE LOW RAMPS UP AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF EXPLICITLY SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS HERE AND GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE IMPULSES IMPACTING THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH LATE WED AND ENOUGH WITH THE DETAIL OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC TO WARRANT A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINE-SCALE FEATURES. WAVES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS BLEND. THE EC WAVE IS NOTABLY HIGHER WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA AS THE LOW DEEPENS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEANED SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE EC WAVE HERE AS THE MWW3 CAN BE SLOW TO RAMP UP FOR A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW LIKE THIS ONE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.