000 AGXX40 KNHC 041952 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN LOW CONFIDENCE THU THROUGH FRI. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WHAT WAS RECENTLY A COLD FRONT NOW A STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA AND SW 25N92W...AND S TO TO INLAND MEXICO AT VERACRUZ. MODERATE E TO SE WIND FLOW IS NOTED SE OF THE FRONT. TO THE NW OF THE FRONT...NE TO E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BEING REPORTED BY THE BUOYS AND OIL PLATFORMS... EXCEPT W OF THE FRONT FROM 22N TO 25N WHERE NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING. THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT E OF 89W...AND 5-7 FT W OF 89W. AREAS OF RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED INDUCING WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WED AS SUGGEST BY THE MODELS. ALTHOUGH NOT TOO CLEAR IN THE GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW PRES TO BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WED NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW ONCE IT FORMS WED AS TRACKS NEWD. ENSEMBLE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PERSISTENTLY INDICATES THAT THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWD TO FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA THU DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SW TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THU BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE NE TO E FRI W OF 85W...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NW- N WINDS E OF 85W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD SUN AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SURFACE ANALYSES FROM THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOW A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRES GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR S CENTRAL PORTION...AND WATERS NEAR COLOMBIA WHERE A JUST RECEIVED ASCAT PASS HIGHLIGHTED NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT THERE. SEAS THROUGHOUT ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SW PORTION WHERE HIGHER SEAS OF UP TO POSSIBLY 9 FT ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS. SEAS ARE LOWER W OF 79W...IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TAIL END OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAK AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR CENTRAL CUBA TO FAR SW GULF OF HONDURAS LATE FRI...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR NORTHERN BELIZE EARLY SAT...AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 16N83W BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE TO MODERATE AT MOST. THE TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE DURING FRI...AND REMAIN LIKE THAT THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST OF GFS/ECMWF. USED NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE SAT AND SUN. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N74W SW TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. A TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE FRONT FROM 30N74W TO 27N78W. HIGH PRES OF 1020 MB IS NEAR 27N64W. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN NE SWELLS E OF 69W...AND 4-5 FT W OF 69W EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK N...AND WHILE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. A LOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE NW WATERS AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI...AND FROM 31N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT...AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE WATERS LATE SAT AND SUN. THE FORECAST FOR THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE WSW FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS SAT...AND MUCH OF SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20-25 KT WITH WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR OR ALONG 30N. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED JUST N OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME...AND CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF THESE STRONGER WINDS SLIDING S INTO THE AREA DAY 4. RIGHT NOW EMSEMBLE FORECAST FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES REMAINS LOW FOR THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS ON SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.