000 AGXX40 KNHC 040729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 229 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ASCAT PASSES AT 0330 UTC AND 0416 UTC SHOW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. THEREFORE...THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DROP OFF TODAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA THROUGH 24N94W TO 20N97W. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES IN THE FORECAST BY WED WHEN LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE SW GULF. THE 0000 UTC GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NE GULF THROUGH THU...BUT THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. THAT UNCERTAINTY WANES SOMEWHAT FRI AND SAT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES E AND HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THU AND THE ECMWF WAS ADDED ON FRI. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FRI. RECENT ASCAT PASSES CONFIRM THAT WINDS REMAIN STRONGEST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A STRONG BREEZE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT ON SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY FRI. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS FRONT THAN THE 0000 UTC GFS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...SO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SEEMS IN ORDER. THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...DIMINISHING THE STRONG BREEZE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT NIGHT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MON AND ECMWF ADDED TO THE MIX TUE ONWARD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WED ONWARD. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW WATERS FROM 31N79W TO SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS LIE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACCORDING TO THE 0152 UTC AND 0238 UTC ASCAT PASSES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT WINDS TO ADVISORY STRENGTH WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THESE FINE FEATURES. THE 0000 UTC GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE SW N ATLC LATE THU...WITH THE ECMWF STILL FASTER MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA. THE ECMWF IS ALSO STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL LIES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE IMPULSES IMPACTING THE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH LATE WED AND WANES FURTHER AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM THE GULF INTO THE AREA THU. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE FINE-SCALE FEATURES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.