000 AGXX40 KNHC 031956 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH COLD FRONT FORECAST POSITIONS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN THE W GULF ALONG FRONT...HOWEVER MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE LOW PRES. THE COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE NW GULF EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS QUICKLY REACH A POSITION FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW TO 26N93W TO INLAND MEXICO JUST N OF OF TAMPICO. A CYCLONIC SWIRL DEPICTED AS A 1012 MB LOW IS JUST E OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT 20N96W MOVING SEWD. WEAKENING HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF E OF THE FRONT. BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS ARE REVEAL A VERY NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE FRONT BOUNDARY...WITH SE-S WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING N-NE WINDS 20-30 KT TO THE NW OF THE FRONT. NW-N GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-35 KT HAVE BEGUN JUST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE PER THE OBSERVATION FROM SHIP "WDC6925" AT 23N96W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ESE REACHING FROM NEAR FORT MYERS TO 25N87W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO A FRONTAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF TUE AS A SHARPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MODELS STILL DEPICT LOW PRES DEVELOPING FROM THIS WAVE AND TRACKING NE WED THROUGH THU BY WHICH TIME IT WILL BE NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING SW TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT IS STILL TIMED TO MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATE THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRI. ON SAT...THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR NE GULF WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER WESTERN HALF AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN TEXAS. THE GALE WARNING IN THE FAR W CENTRAL GULF WILL LAST INTO LATE TONIGHT. SEAS THERE WILL BE UP TO AROUND 11 FT...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. USED NWPS PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A VERY WEAK AND BROAD PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT TO BRIEF PULSES TO 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 5. THE SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4-6 FT IN NE TO E SWELLS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH IMPACTS OF LOW FRONTAL LOW PRES OVER THE NW PORTION. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRES OVER THE BASIN DUE A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 30.5N66W. THE 1522 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 30N W OF ABOUT 75W. THIS IS DUE TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW WATERS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...BOTH BUOY DATA AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1344 UTC THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THAT WINDS ARE GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE IN SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS FROM NE-E TO E OF 69W AND E- SE W OF 69W...EXCEPT S-SW MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 76W. BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN NE SWELLS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 4-6 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS EXCEPT 2-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR THE HIGH PRES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY TUE WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY TO ALLOW FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N75W TO A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 30N77W AND SW TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BECOME STATIONARY INTO WED EVENING...THEN LIFT SOMEWHAT N LATER ON WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE LOW PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE TRACKING NE. THIS NEXT LOW WILL TRACK NE ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND THE FAR NW WATERS THU WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NW WATERS BY THU EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY FRI...FROM 31N68W TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE FRI BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE FAR E AND SE PORTIONS SAT. STILL IT APPEARS THAT AN EXPANDING AREA OF SW WINDS OF ABOUT 20-25 KT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREA N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS ON FRI BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE FAR NE PORTION SAT. W-NW WINDS OF ABOUT 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AND SAT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS FRI INTO SAT IF THE LOW PRES THAT TRACKS NE VERIFIES TO BE DEEPER AND FARTHER S THAN ANTICIPATED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING W OF 96W TONIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING N OF 21N W OF 96W TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.