000 AGXX40 KNHC 030728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE AND ECMWF ADDED TO THE MIX WED ONWARD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WED ONWARD. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NW GULF IN ZONES GMZ011 AND GMS013 WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS FOUND BEHIND IT. THE 0258 UTC ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED 30-34 KT WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OFFSHORE OF MATAGORDA ISLAND AND ELEVATED PLATFORM KBBF REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS AT 0600 UTC. WHILE THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF GALE FORCE WINDS AT 10 METERS...GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE BELIEVED TO BE OCCURRING AS THIS COLD AIR MASS MOVES OVER NEAR 70 DEGREE WATER ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL MIXING. A GALE WARNING WILL RUN FROM 0600 THROUGH 1200 UTC IN THESE NORTHERN GULF ZONES AND THEN SHIFT TO ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZ023 FROM 1800 THROUGH 0000 UTC AS THE COLD AIR BRIEFLY DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS ENHANCED BY FUNNELING EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN MEXICO. THE 0000 UTC GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS...BUT THEY DO HAVE A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT HERE. THEY ARE ALSO BOTH SLIGHTLY WEAK COMPARED TO 0600 UTC WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE 0300 UTC SREF CARRIES UP TO A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SREF IS TRUSTED ABOVE THE LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS FOR SUCH A SHORT-TERM FORECAST. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES FURTHER IN THE FORECAST BY WED WHEN LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE SW GULF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST GLOBAL MODEL WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AND SENDS IT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE GULF SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS IS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST FROM WED ONWARD IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THU AND THE ECMWF WAS ADDED ON FRI. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC HAS FORCED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THAT IS DRIVING SOME FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...DIMINISHING THE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A STRONG BREEZE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY FRI. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS FRONT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...SO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SEEMS IN ORDER. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MON AND ECMWF ADDED TO THE MIX TUE ONWARD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WED ONWARD. HIGH PRES AND RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE SW N ATLC AT THE MOMENT. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OVER NW WATERS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EMERGING FROM THE GULF AROUND 0600 UTC TUE. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON THIS TIMING...BUT THEN DIVERGE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER NW WATERS TUE. THE GFS IS MORE STRUNG OUT WITH THE LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL WED MORNING WHEN IT DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW JUST N OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BETTER DEFINED WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TUE INTO WED AND DOES NOT DEVELOP A STRONG COASTAL LOW LIKE THE GFS WED...WAITING UNTIL 1800 UTC THU TO DEEPEN THE TROUGHING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. THE ECMWF IS FASTER TO CARRY THE COLD FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT LATE THU THAN THE GFS. THE UKMET IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER ON THU AND SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN FLORIDA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE DETAILS AND WANES FURTHER AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WED. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE FINE-SCALE FEATURES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE WARNING TODAY. GMZ013...GALE WARNING TODAY. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.