000 AGXX40 KNHC 021955 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WED THROUGH FRI. MODERATE SE FLOW COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT E OF 89W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED BY THE BUOYS...AND AS CONFIRMED IN THE THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF...AND 4-5 FT W OF 90W. CHANGES ARE ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY MON IN RESPONSE TO O THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO INLAND NE MEXICO NEAR DAYBREAK MON...AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MON EVENING. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ON TUE. ON TUE THE FRONT WILL BE ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR SW FLORIDA TO AN INDUCE FRONTAL WAVE OR LOW NEAR 24N96W...AND CONTINUING TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. THEN ON WED...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF INDUCING THE FORMATION OF WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN A GENERAL NNE DIRECTION THROUGH LATE WED...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WED. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK NE OF THE GULF...AND ACROSS NE FLORIDA THU PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT E OF THE AREA. HAVE HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE W CENTRAL GULF FOR MON EVENING...BUT MAY BEGIN A BIT EARLIER AND SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. WINDS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE NLY AT 20-30 KT...BUT WILL QUICKLY DECREASE MON EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORECAST LOW PRES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NLY 20-25 KT FOR NOW. ANY UPDATES TO THESE WINDS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE FUTURE FORECASTS IF WARRANTED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 10 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF MON...BUT COULD BE HIGHER PENDING DURATION OF THE 20-30 KT WINDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE W CENTRAL GULF IF THEY IN DEED LAST LONGER THAN FORECASTED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A VERY WEAK AND BROAD PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT TO BRIEF PULSES TO 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WINDWARD PASS TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC. NE WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE MOSTLY 20 KT WITH A FEW BRIEF INSTANCES OF 20-25 KT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 F EARLY TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE AND ECMWF ADDED TO THE MIX WED ONWARD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WED ONWARD. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 22N65W TO THE FAR NE PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A SWATH OF NE WINDS 20-25 KT FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN FRONT AND 74W. BUOYS IN THAT AREA ARE SHOWING HIGH SEA STATE WITH COMBINED SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN NE SWELLS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE LOWER ABOUT 4-7 FT IN NE TO E SWELLS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 3-5 FT W OF 79W N OF THE BAHAMAS. LOWERS SEAS OF 2 FT ARE SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MON NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N75W TO LOW PRES NEAR 30N78W AND TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO LOW PRES NEAR 30N78W...AND TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY EARLY TUE. THE LOW PRES WILL THEN MOVE NE OF AREA WED WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR 31N72W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH BY WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT TRACKS NE. AN EXPANDING AREA OF SW WINDS OF ABOUT 20-25 KT WILL ENCOMPASS THE NW WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE THU NIGHT...AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE FRI. STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND IT FRI. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD E AND W OF THE FRONT THU AND FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING W OF 96W MON NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.