000 AGXX40 KNHC 020746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE AND ECMWF ADDED TO THE MIX WED ONWARD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WED ONWARD. CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL IN THE E GULF UNDER A PERSISTENT RIDGE WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE 00 UTC ECMWF IS FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET WITH FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF. NLY WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WILL PEAK AT 30 KT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF MON...PRIMARILY IN THE COASTAL WATERS. DESPITE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT POSITION BY MON EVENING AND BOTH SUPPORT 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. THE 03Z SREF SHOWS A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS THERE BETWEEN 1800 UTC AND 0000 UTC MON. THE 0600 UTC GEFS DOES NOT HINT AT GALES. IF WINDS DO GET TO GALE FORCE...IT WOULD BE A BRIEF EVENT. WILL KEEP WINDS TO 30 KT HERE FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES BY WED WHEN LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE SW GULF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS MADE A LARGE CHANGE TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY TRENDING CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH LOW PRES IN THE NE GULF BY THU EVENING. THE 1200 UTC RUN HAD CARRIED A 994 MB LOW HERE AT THAT TIME WHILE THE LATEST 0000 UTC RUN IS 1004 MB AND FASTER...SHOWING SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING OFF THE ATLC COAST BY THAT TIME. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS MEANS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE FORECAST WILL BLEND IN THE 0000 UTC ECMWF WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEGINNING WED TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A VERY WEAK AND BROAD PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT TO BRIEF PULSES TO 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WINDWARD PASS TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC. SEAS WERE BUMPED UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND DOWNWIND COMPARED TO THE MWW3 TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER WINDS THAN THE GFS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT BY LATE NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS THAT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE AND ECMWF ADDED TO THE MIX WED ONWARD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WED ONWARD. A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED SAT EVENING FOR ZONE AMZ115 BASED ON THE 0138 UTC ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE FAR NE PORTION. SHIP ZCEG4 REPORTED 30 KT N-NW WINDS IN THIS AREA AT 0600 UTC. THE FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH HERE TODAY. THE 03Z SREF CLINGS TO A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS. GUSTS ARE LIKELY STILL TO GALE FORCE HERE. THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN UP HERE FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDITONS THROUGH SUNRISE. SW WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP OVER NW WATERS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EMERGING FROM THE GULF AROUND 0600 UTC TUE. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON THIS TIMING...BUT THEN DIVERGE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER NW WATERS BEGINNING TUE NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MORE STRUNG OUT WITH THE LOW PRES N OF THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY WED WHILE THE GFS CARRIES A MORE DEFINED LOW CENTER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE DETAILS AND WANES FURTHER AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WED. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE ECMWF HAS MADE A LARGE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST WITH THE LOW THERE WED/THU COMPARED TO ITS 1200 UTC RUN. ITS LATEST SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE EC ENS AND GEFS MEANS. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...GALE WARNING TODAY. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.