000
AGXX40 KNHC 011955
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
AND THE LATEST MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NE
GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PERSIST FROM LATER TODAY
THROUGH SUN. CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL IN THE E GULF
...WITH SE RETURN FLOW PICKING UP IN THE WESTERN GULF IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO EMERGE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS COME 
IN MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH FRONTAL INTO THE NW GULF. STILL
EXPECT NLY WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 KT WITH WINDS TO PEAK AT
30 KT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF MON. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON...FROM
SW FLORIDA TO 23N96W TO 18N94W BY LATE TUE...AND BEGIN TO LIFT
OVER NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WED. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WEAK LOW PRES...POSSIBLY BROAD IN
NATURE...DEVELOPS OVER THE NW OR WESTERN GULF BEGINNING TUE ALONG
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE THEN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NE WED AND THU. MODELS
...INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...STILL DIFFER AS TO THE
EXACT LOW POSITIONS IN ITS NE TRACK. IN ANY EVENT...A TIGHTENING
OF THE PRES GRADIENT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED DURING THE MAJORITY OF NEXT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE THOSE SECTIONS OF THE 
GULF AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MM3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A VERY WEAK AND BROAD PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT TO BRIEF PULSES TO
25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND
5-8 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...
THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT BY LATE NIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS THAT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON... THEN HIGH
CONFIDENCE INTO THU.

THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NEAR 29N65W SW TO 27N90W TO 25N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
TO WESTERN CUBA. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EARLIER ANALYZED NE OF THE 
BAHAMAS HAS MOVED TO N OF 31N. A PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH
CONTINUES ALONG A POSITION FROM 29N77W TO 25N79W AS A HIGH PRES 
RIDGES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST. THE AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION EARLIER
IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING WITH
TIME...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS SUN MORE LIKE A 
TROUGH FEATURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST 
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN ALSO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS TUE AND EASTERN WATERS WED AND THU.
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES WED AND THU AS LOW PRES FROM THE GULF
TRACKS NE FLORIDA...AND TO ALONG OR JUST OVER THE SE U.S. COAST.
MODELS STILL VARY WITH EXACT TIMING OF THE LOW. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE WED OR THU
...HOWEVER...THIS TIMING IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.