000
AGXX40 KNHC 010721
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
221 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST MWW3.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL FROM THE NE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
PERSIST FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH SUN. CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL IN THE E GULF THIS MORNING...WITH SE RETURN FLOW PICKING
UP IN THE WESTERN GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS FASTER TO MOVE THIS FRONT INTO THE GULF. ITS MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT COMPARED TO 30 KT SEEN IN
THE GFS. MEANWHILE...THE UKMET IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER AND
STRONGER GFS. THIS IS A VERY COLD AIRMASS...SO VERTICAL MIXING
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE 70
DEGREE SURFACE WATER IN THE NW GULF. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING SLOWER TIMING WITH THIS FRONT. THEREFORE...WILL USE THE
GFS TO ADJUST THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEITHER THE 06Z GEFS OR THE 03Z
SREF SHOW ANY CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THIS FRONT.

 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST MWW3.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A VERY WEAK AND BROAD PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT 25 KT WINDS AS SEEN
BY THE 0250 UTC ASCAT-B PASS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NEITHER
THE 0000 UTC GFS OR ECMWF ARE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE WINDS OFF
COLOMBIA. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE WINDS AND SEAS HERE TO
BETTER MATCH THE OBSERVATION. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NE-E WITH
SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND
5-8 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MWW3. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NE
OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THE 0114 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE
E OF THE LOW AND N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN WATERS.
BY SUN...CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRES. HOWEVER...THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ECMWF HAS MADE A LARGE CHANGE AWAY FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS
LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.