000 AGXX40 KNHC 281824 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 124 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WAS REACHING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE TO THE NW SLIGHTLY WHILE WEAKENING. THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW ALREADY OVER THE NW GULF AS INDICATED BY THE 1446Z AND 1540Z ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF AND 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY MON WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY MON AFTERNOON...THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT STALLS FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MON. THE 12Z GFS DEVELOPS LOW PRES ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT ON TUE...MOVING THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE E INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT...MOVING IT INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ABOUT 6 HOURS EARLIER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION REMNANTS TUE. THE GEFS AND SREF DO NOT SHOW ANY CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THIS FRONT. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT REMAIN...THUS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT BEST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A VERY WEAK AND BROAD PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NEITHER THE 12Z GFS OR ECMWF ARE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE WINDS AND SEAS HERE TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NE-E WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS STALLING FROM 29N65W TO 28N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60-90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS OF RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT NW-N IN THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS W OF WHERE A COASTAL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. ATLC RIDGING SNEAKS INTO THE SE PORTION WITH MODERATE SE-S WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM E OF THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY N OF 31N WILL DROP INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRI. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF 65W THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT AS IT SHIFTS E OF 65W LATE SAT. HIGH PRES RIDGING DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUN THROUGH MON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION LATE MON STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.