000 AGXX40 KNHC 280739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 0220 UTC AND 0400 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW 20-30 KT WINDS STILL LINGER N OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF AREA CONSIDERABLY WEAKER HERE...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE SCATTEROMETER OBSERVATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNRISE AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. A RIDGE WILL FROM THE NE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PERSIST FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH SUN. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE WESTERN GULF SUN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS COLD FRONT. IT IS ON THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTING THE FRONT. THE GFS IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS SLOWER TIMING. THEREFORE...WILL USE THE GFS TO ADJUST THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEITHER THE 06Z GEFS OR THE 03Z SREF SHOW ANY CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THIS FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A VERY WEAK AND BROAD PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT 25 KT WINDS AS SEEN BY SHIP BAREU08 NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 0600 UTC. NEITHER THE 0000 UTC GFS OR ECMWF ARE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE WINDS AND SEAS HERE TO BETTER MATCH THE OBSERVATION. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NE-E WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS PREVAIL OFF FLORIDA AND OVER THE BAHAMAS S OF A LINE FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 31N77W WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOUND S OF THE COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 30N ACCORDING TO THE 0134 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE SC COAST. HOWEVER...THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF 65W THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N. THE GFS SUPPORTS A STRONGER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS LOW. THE GFS WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO KEEP WITH THE TREND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.